Source: POLITICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 3/5/19

With the 11-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership now in effect, American farmers and ranchers could see their exports slump as member nations like Australia, Chile and Japan exchange more ag products with each other and buy fewer from the U.S.

New analysis from the Farm Foundation and Purdue University estimates U.S. exports would improve from a loss of $1.8 billion to a gain of $2.9 billion per year if Washington moves to re-enter the trade deal, your host reports.

Winners and losers: Entering into TPP now could boost U.S. dairy exports by $1 billion or 17.5 percent, the study predicts. Poultry and pork products are estimated to take the biggest hit due to the U.S. being left out of the agreement.

Major business and farm groups want Trump to reconsider TPP, and the president surprised observers last year when he tweeted that he was open to rejoining the pact — if it were "substantially better" than what President Barack Obama had been offered.

The Trump administration is expected to launch negotiations in the coming weeks toward a potential bilateral trade deal with Japan, a massive market for farm goods. A trade deal with Tokyo could go a long way in offsetting the lost ag exports due to Trump's TPP withdrawal.