Source: POLITICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 3/7/19

USDA's Economic Research Service released its first 2019 farm income forecast on Wednesday. The outlook includes some warning signs, like projections of the highest farm debt levels in decades and worsening debt-to-asset ratios, a measure of farm solvency.

Crunching the numbers: USDA predicts net farm income will reach $69.4 billion in 2019, a potential increase of $5.2 billion from 2018 levels (after adjusting for inflation). The projected 2019 income would be nearly 50 percent lower than the 2013 peak of $136.1 billion, and below the $90 billion average since 2000, your host reports.

— Debt on the rise: USDA estimates farm debt will reach $426.7 billion this year. That would mark the highest total since 1982, ERS economist Carrie Litkowski said on a conference call.

— The debt-to-asset ratio, which has been rising since 2012, is expected to increase again in 2019 but remain low relative to historic levels. Litkowski said "the sector's risk of insolvency is now at its highest level since 2009," but it's not close to the debt-to-asset levels of the 1980s farm crisis.

Commodity details: Cash receipts are projected to increase in 2019 for corn, wheat, cotton, milk, turkey, cattle, fruits and nuts. USDA expects lower receipts for soybeans and hogs, both of which have been affected by President Donald Trump's trade feuds.