Source: Susan Kelly, MEATINGPLACE, 3/21/19


China’s pig inventory will be down 13 percent to 374 million head by the end of 2019, with pork production down 5 percent to 51.4 million metric tons, due to the country’s African Swine Fever crisis, USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) said in a new attaché report.

The reduced supply will be offset only slightly by weakened demand. To cover the domestic supply gap, China will need to increase pork imports by 33 percent to 2 million metric tons, the report estimated.

While U.S. pork products still face retaliatory Chinese tariffs of up to 62 percent, as well as process verification requirements, U.S. producers could boost exports to China significantly if these are removed, the report said.

CNBC reported Thursday that U.S. President Donald Trump is pushing China to “double or triple” its purchases of U.S. goods as negotiators continue trade talks between the two countries. China has offered to purchase up to $1.2 trillion in U.S. energy, agriculture and aircraft products over six years.

African Swine Fever outbreaks continue in China. The nation has reported 115 ASF outbreaks to the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), covering all commercially significant swine producing regions.

While it is still unclear if ASF outbreaks will continue to be reported with the same frequency and geographic distribution, the disease has already taken a toll on China’s swine and pork production for 2019, FAS concluded.

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