Source: POLTICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 4/2/19

There was growing concern from farm groups in 2018 as the Fed continued steadily raising interest rates, which can make business more expensive for agricultural producers. USDA estimates producers will pay $22.6 billion in interest expenses in 2019 — the continuation of a 38 percent uptick since 2013, notes ag economist David Widmar at Agricultural Economic Insights.

Higher interest rates tell just half the story of rising interest costs, however. The Fed has steadily raised rates since 2015, but they remain low relative to historical levels. (And the central bank now appears set to keep rates flat for the rest of 2019, given uncertainty about the U.S. economic outlook.)

Farm debt is the other factor, and real debt levels in 2019 are projected to reach the highest point since 1982 , according to USDA analysts. The growing debt pile accounts for most of the recent uptick in interest costs paid by producers.

Meanwhile, farm income has declined over the same period. USDA projected net farm incomewill be $69.4 billion in 2019. If that comes to pass, that would be nearly 50 percent less than 2013 income levels, accounting for inflation.

Caveats: The debt-to-asset ratio, a common measure of farm financial risk, has been rising since 2012, but it's still well below debt-to-asset levels in the 1980s. USDA economist Carrie Litkowski said last month that "the sector's risk of insolvency is now at its highest level since 2009" but remains low when considered historically.