Source: Tom Johnston, MEATINGPLACE, 4/11/19

African Swine Fever is wreaking havoc in China’s hog population, disrupting global pork markets and forcing U.S. stakeholders to align in an effort to keep the deadly porcine disease from breaking out stateside.

Presentations given here at the North American Meat Institute’s Meat Industry Summit by David Williams, vice president of Informa Economics IEG, and Bill Even, CEO of the National Pork Board, were bleak.

“African Swine Fever is the worst possible disease in swine in the world,” Even said. “China is home to half of world’s pigs, so prevention of ASF in North America is going to be critical. There’s no vaccine for ASF. There’s no treatment for ASF. And the [producers] we talk to … in China liken it to a flow of hot, molten lava. It moves slowly through your facility, but it kills everything.”

ASF has claimed 18 percent of China’s 435 million-head herd. That portion is more than the entire U.S. hog population. With exports accounting for 25 percent of U.S. pork production, China’s ASF problem “is either going to be a boom or bust for the U.S. hog industry going forward," Even said.

Williams called ASF the “biggest game changer” in the protein business perhaps in the last 30 years and said it will continue to have a global impact as far out as 2022. Not only has China lost a huge chunk of its herd, but the country is not repopulating those barns after attempts to do so failed with further outbreaks, he said.

“There’s been a few times in my history that we’ve seen the pork cutout rally $30 in like 14 to 17 days; well, it just happened,” Williams said. “So there’s a lot of anticipation of what’s going to happen. … How many hogs will they lose? How much demand destruction will they have in China? The thing is they’re switching to other proteins. They’re not just buying pork anymore.”

Informa believes the biggest time for China to buy pork will come between September and January of this year for Chinese New Year. However, current trade issues need to be resolved, as China imposes a 62 to 67 percent tariff on U.S. pork compared with Europe (15 percent) and Brazil (25 percent). 

What if …
The picture would turn much bleaker if an outbreak of ASF were to hit the United States. Producers here would lose not only hogs but also the export business. Transmitted by through contaminated pork, feed and casings, outbreaks are now being reported in Vietnam, Tibet, Cambodia and South Africa, in addition to China.

“We move 1 million head of pigs a day in this country,” Even said. “… If we don’t have early detection on this bad boy, the entire United States is going to go under lockdown. And our system is such that it’s just-in-time operations. Can you imagine stopping the entire system full stop for a week, two weeks? What do you do with the pigs? What do you do with the packing plants? This is like a set of dominoes that just starts cascading really quickly.”

Even said, however, that the United States will manage the potential problems “extremely well.” 

Preparations began as soon as China first reported ASF in August, with the formation of an action team including the Pork Checkoff, National Pork Producers Council, USDA, North American Meat Institute, Swine Health Information Center, and the American Association of Swine Veterinarians. Among their efforts was production of a foreign animal disease bulletin, which can be found at www.pork.org/FAD. 

“We’re doing our best to prepare, but fundamentally we have to keep it out,” Even said.

ASF is not in the United States, nor have any U.S. pigs been affected by the disease to date. It’s a viral disease that impacts pigs only, so it is not a public health threat or a food safety concern. USDA prohibits importation of pigs or fresh pork into the United States from areas or regions of the world that report positive for ASF.

More information on securing the U.S. pork supply can be found at http://www.securepork.org.

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