Source: Lisa M. Keefe, MEATINGPLACE, 4/12/19



A new report out from RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness pegs expected losses from African swine fever in China in 2019 to reach as high as 35 percent of the total hog herd.

Losses in Vietnam, the world’s fifth-largest hog producer, could surpass 10 percent of the herd there, according to “Rising African Swine Fever Losses to Lift All Protein Boats.”

That would put China’s losses in pork production from ASF at a level equivalent to all of the pork supplied in Europe and 30 percent greater than the total volume of pork production in the United States, the report said. Furthermore, rebuilding the pork industry in China will take years, Rabobank’s analysts predict.

The loss of pork supply points to higher prices for proteins across the board and opportunities for companies that export to Asia, although trade restrictions and other factors prevent a pound-for-pound replacement by beef and other meats. The report also projects “logistical inefficiencies” and higher costs across the meat supply chain as the global meat industry adjusts to the ASF shock to its system.

As protein shipments are increasingly directed to China, product shortfalls are expected to occur in other countries to which those proteins previously were exported, “creating short-term market volatility that will ultimately result in higher global protein prices.”

Meanwhile, “the potential for outbreaks to restrict exports from significant pork-producing countries, such as Germany, cannot be ruled out. Such restrictions would complicate the trade response to ASF in China and Southeast Asia,” the report said.

By the end of the calendar year, Rabobank analysts project a net supply gap of almost 10 million metric tons in the total 2019 animal protein supply.

Last week, USDA reported net pork export sales to China of 77,732 metric tons, setting a weekly volume record by far.

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