Source: Chris Scott, MEATINGPLACE, 4/17/19


China is likely to buy more U.S. pork in light of shrinking domestic supply due to the African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak and may lift restrictions on U.S. poultry, according to a report on negotiations to end the trade war between the two countries.

Although no official comments on the progress of the most recent talks have been issued, sources familiar with the situation told Reuters that China so far is not willing to lift a restriction on pork products showing traces of ractopamine, which some U.S. hogs receive to improve growth. The 17-year-old ban is similar to one imposed by the European Union, which also cited potential health problems in humans who consume such products.

China is facing a looming domestic pork shortage in the fallout from ASF, which could result in up to 200 million pigs being culled or dying from ASF this year alone, according to Rabobank. An official from China’s ministry of agriculture and rural affairs this week also predicted that pork prices could rise by more than 70 percent in the second half of the year because of reduced domestic supplies, the South China Morning Post reported.

China is expected to turn to other proteins such as poultry as the availability of pork declines. USDA is projecting that China’s chicken imports could rise by nearly 70 percent in 2019 if that scenario plays out. Current trade negotiations are focused on lifting a 2015 ban on U.S. poultry and eggs that stemmed from the major U.S. avian influenza (AI) outbreak, Reuters noted. That AI issue essentially ended in late 2016 as markets in Mexico, South Korea and other nations reopened to U.S. poultry.

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