Source: POLITICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 4/19/19

The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement would provide an incremental bump to the U.S. economy, according to a long-awaited U.S. International Trade Commission analysis of the deal's economic impacts. Under the renegotiated NAFTA, U.S. GDP would rise by $68.2 billion, or 0.35 percent, by the sixth year after the pact takes effect, and it would create 176,000 jobs, increasing employment by 0.12 percent.

Here are some of the ITC's estimates of how the agriculture industry would be affected:

Dairy exports from the U.S. to Canada would increase by $227 million annually, a jump of 43.8 percent. U.S. imports of Canadian dairy products would also rise, with $161.7 million more in goods entering the country.

Poultry raised in the U.S. would get expanded access to the Canadian market. Poultry meat exports in particular would increase by $183.5 million, or 49.3 percent, while shipments of live birds and eggs for incubation would rise by 11.2 percent and exports of eggs for consumption would jump by 27.9 percent.

Sugar would be traded between Canada and the U.S. at higher rates: Imports from Canada would increase by $16 million, or 1.4 percent, and exports from the U.S. would rise by $21.1 million, or 2.3 percent.

U.S. wheat producers are likely to get a small increase in access to the Canadian market, as well.

The ITC's assessment checks an important procedural box before Congress can consider the pact under the Trade Promotion Authority law, which allows it to get an up-or-down vote without amendments, our Pro Trade colleagues write. But the ITC's forecast could make it tougher for President Donald Trump to sell the deal to Democrats.