Source: POLITICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 5/10/19

The African swine fever outbreak in China that has killed millions of pigs may have another victim: the U.S. dairy industry. Fewer hogs means less demand for ingredients used in feed, many of which are derived from cow's milk, such as milk and whey permeate, whey powder and lactose.

As many as 200 million pigs are expected to be infected or slaughtered due to ASF, which translates to a decline in demand of lactose in piglet feed of between 54,500 metric tons and 72,500 metric tons, according to a report from Rabobank, a Dutch financial services firm.

Early signs of declining demand appeared in November. Global trade data showed that demand sank 30 percent in March compared with the same period the year prior. U.S. exports of whey and permeate to China saw a 60 percent decline in demand, attributed to ASF and Chinese tariffs on dairy exports, which the firm called a "double whammy" on the dairy industry.

No end in sight: The firm said it believes that "the impacts of ASF are not short-lived and that it may take years to replenish the hog numbers that have been lost. Thus the demand for dry whey, permeate, and lactose will be negatively impacted, lowering the potential returns to cheese and whey manufacturers through this period."