Source: POLITICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 5/14/19

Trump on Monday reiterated his intent to spend $15 billion to boost farmers affected by China's trade retaliation but did not indicate what form the aid would take. "We're going to take the highest year, the biggest purchase that China has made ever made with our farmers — which is about $15 billion — and do something reciprocal to our farmers, so our farmers can do well," he told reporters at the White House.

It's the second time Trump has teased $15 billion in aid, effectively committing his administration to spend even more money assisting farmers and ranchers this year than it did for 2018 production. (USDA last summer devoted up to $12 billion to help producers stung by retaliatory duties.)

Direct aid on the way? Trump last week raised the prospect of buying up U.S. farm goods and sending them to needy countries. But many industry experts think another direct payment program is most likely.

David Widmar and Brent Gloy of Agricultural Economic Insights said direct income-boosting programs like the trade aid payments are more practical than efforts to support commodity prices or manage supply. The latter programs "were sent to the ag policy history books for a reason," they wrote in an online post Monday.

On the other hand, the longer the trade war drags on, "the more pressure there will be to take more dramatic actions" like the buy-ups Trump floated on Twitter last week, they noted.

"The only real option is to send checks like the [Market Facilitation Program] last year,"tweeted Scott Irwin, a University of Illinois ag economist, referring to the roughly $9 billion in direct payments for 2018 production. "I think something along these lines has a high probability of happening for 2019 crops."

Ken Morrison, an agricultural commodity market expert, also said another installment of direct payments is "the only viable option" for aiding farmers. Morrison told MA he expects details of Trump's trade relief plan within a month — but he thinks the effort could be more complicated this year as other industries beyond agriculture push for trade relief, too.

Divvying up funds among specific commodity sectors could again be complex and controversial, Morrison added. The majority of the 2018 production assistance went to soybean growers, who are among the hardest hit by Chinese retaliation.