Source: POLITICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 5/31/19

American farmers and ranchers are expected to send just $6.5 billion in exports to China in fiscal 2019, accelerating a downward slide over the past two years because of the U.S.-China trade war. Last year, the U.S. shipped $16.8 billion in agricultural products to China, and in fiscal 2017 exports totaled $21.8 billion, according to the USDA's latest trade forecast posted Thursday. 

The drop is primarily driven by falling soybean sales. U.S. soybean exports are estimated to total $17 billion in fiscal 2019 compared with $21.6 billion last year. China's demand has slowed from last year because of the escalating trade dispute with Washington and the widespread outbreaks of African swine fever that have decimated the Chinese hog herd, reducing the need for feed.

China has put on hold the additional soybean purchases it committed to earlier this year, Bloomberg reported Thursday. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue in February said the country agreed to buy an extra 10 million tons.

Perdue told reporters in Kennett Square, Pa., on Thursday: "If we cannot trust China to live up to their commitments of buying those products ... how can we trust them to support any kind of agreement? If they want to be partners in world trade, they need to step up like big boys and do what they say they're going to do."

Lowest agricultural trade surplus in more than a decade: USDA predicted the surplus would total $8 billion this year, a drop from $15.8 billion in fiscal 2018 and $21.1 billion the year before that.