Source: Chris Scott, MEATINGPLACE, 6/26/19


Relatively weak demand and continued supply pressure prompted USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) to reduce the price forecast for U.S. broilers to 99 cents per pound in the second quarter, 87 cents in the third quarter and 80 cents in the fourth quarter of 2019.

The agency’s latest report noted that whole bird (National Composite) broiler prices averaged 100.89 cents per pound in May, a 14% decrease compared with May of last year and more than 7% lower than the five-year average. And while spring usually sends broiler prices higher, prices increased less than 2 cents per pound in May before continuing to fall in early June, ERS reported. Anticipated weak demand in 2020 also prompted a price forecast revision downward to 94 cents per pound, about 4% higher than the forecast price for all of 2019.

Uncertainty in the broiler export market continued, ERS reported, with April export volumes reaching 544 million pounds. The figure is 7% lower than in the same period last year, ERS said, as shipment volumes in key markets continued to fluctuate. Broiler export declines in April included Angola (-62%), Cuba (-43%, The Philippines (-55%), Taiwan (-25%), Hong Kong (21%) and Canada (-19%). Some of these were offset by increases to such nations as South Africa (+58%), Vietnam (+38%) and Guatemala (+13%).

The export forecast also was revised downward to 1.725 billion pounds in the second quarter, ERS said.

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