Source: POLITICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 7/3/19

On Monday, MA explained how international efforts to limit certain farm subsidies are slowing. Today, let's look at direct payments from the U.S. government to farmers and ranchers in 2019, which are trending higher as Trump's trade war has raged on and conditions in the farm economy have weakened.

Over the last decade, farm payments have averaged $11.5 billion per year and topped out at $13.8 billion in 2018, according to Agriculture Department data.

This year, USDA's new trade relief program "will likely push 2019 direct payment above $21 billion, much higher than levels observed in recent memory," said farm economist David Widmar of Agricultural Economic Insights.

That's because the department plans to dole out another $14.5 billion in direct trade aid for 2019 production, in three separate tranches. (Widmar estimated that $9.7 billion would be paid out this year, with the rest coming in 2020, if needed.)

Adding up: The additional money comes on top of the $11.5 billion in direct payments USDA was already expecting to make this year, which includes the first round of trade aid, conservation payments and other annual programs.

What it means: The extent to which government aid is increasingly propping up farm income cuts against Trump's claims that he's turned the farm economy around. Federal payments are on track to account for 27 percent of farmer income this year. While that's well below record levels from the 1980s farm crisis, it's still the highest in more than a decade.

Meanwhile, major trading partners from China to Canada and the EU have questioned if Trump's trade relief program violates WTO rules on agricultural subsidies.

Farm bill fail? Widmar also said "one has to at least consider the possibility that the recently passed 2018 farm bill has failed," given more than half the projected direct aid to farmers in 2019 will come from other programs, like the trade relief payments.