Source: POLITICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 7/3/19

When USDA announced initial details of a direct aid plan for 2019 production in May — just as farmers were deciding which row crops to plant for the year — some lawmakers and ag economists warned that the second trade relief program could significantly influence those decisions.

Turns out, a small percentage of farmers did choose to plant more corn and soybeans in anticipation of the government payments, according to a survey released Tuesday by Purdue University and the CME Group.

Ten percent of corn and soybean producers said the trade relief rollout affected their decisions about taking prevented planting insurance payments. One in five of those farmers said they intended to plant more corn as a result, while one in 10 said they would plant more soybeans.

USDA has repeatedly said it designed the program to limit its impact on planting choices, like by hitching payments to a county rate rather than per commodity.

Topline findings: The Purdue/CME Group survey, which tracks farmer sentiment each month, found that optimism among producers rose by about 25 percent in June. The bump came as crop prices were rallying — due largely to wet weather conditions that have lowered expectations for 2019 production.

On the other hand, nearly four out of five producers said it was a bad time to make large investments in their farm operations, marking the second-most pessimistic reading since the monthly index was launched in 2015.