Source: Susan Kelly, MEATINGPLACE, 7/12/19



USDA increased its projections for 2019 red meat and poultry production as higher forecast pork and broiler supplies more than offset lower beef and turkey.

In its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, USDA said the lower beef production forecast reflects lighter carcass weights and slightly reduced third-quarter steer and heifer slaughter. USDA will release the Cattle report on July 19, providing a mid-year estimate of U.S. cattle inventory and producer intentions for retention of heifers for beef cow replacement.

The pork production outlook is raised on higher-than-expected second-quarter commercial hog slaughter. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on June 27 showed a first-half pig crop 4% above 2018, which supported a higher second-half production forecast.

Second-quarter broiler production is raised on slaughter data, but no change is made to the outlying quarters. Turkey production is lowered slightly on second-quarter production data.

Still more pork
For 2020, the red meat and poultry production forecast is raised on higher forecast pork production. Although producers indicated intentions to farrow about the same number of sows in the second half of 2019, growth in pigs per litter will help support higher numbers of pigs for slaughter in 2020.

Beef, broiler and turkey forecasts are unchanged from the previous month.

Price projections lowered
Cattle price forecasts for 2019 are lowered from last month, reflecting current prices, and are unchanged for 2020. Hog price forecasts are lowered on pressure from increased pork production in late 2019. Hog prices for 2020 are reduced slightly on increased supply pressure. Broiler price forecasts are lowered for 2019 on current price weakness and continued slow demand. No changes are made to 2020 broiler price forecasts. Turkey price forecasts are raised for 2019 and 2020.

Export forecasts reduced
The beef import forecast is raised for 2019, and the export forecast is lowered from the previous month on recent trade data. The 2020 beef trade forecasts are unchanged. The pork export forecast for 2019 is lowered on recent trade data, but no change is made to the 2020 export forecast. The 2019 broiler export forecast is raised on recent trade data and stronger expected global demand in the second half of the year, while the turkey export forecast is little changed. No change is made to the 2020 broiler and turkey export forecasts.

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