Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 7/22/19


USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report and its mid-year Cattle report released on Friday appear to indicate that U.S. cattle herd has stopped expanding, according to analysts reviewing the report.

The Daily Livestock Report, published by the Steiner Consulting Group, cited statistics that support its statement that, “Cyclically, U.S. herd growth has stopped.” For one thing, the number of heifers being held for beef cow replacement purposes dropped by 4% compared with 2018 figures. Also, the number of “other heifers” (those in feedlots, etc.) was higher (up 5% year-over-year). 

The DLR analysts also noted that as of July 1, the proportion of heifers in feedlots continued to rise. The percentage of heifers and heifer calves was 38.9%, with the year-over-year heifer count up 7.7%, while the number of steers declined by 1.7%. The drop in steers could indicate the 2018 calf crop was overestimated.

Similarly, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist Derrell Peel wrote in the Cow/Calf Corner newsletter that the inventories in the reports “suggest that the U.S. cattle herd has reached a plateau.”

Peel went on the explain, “I contrast a plateau with a more typical cyclical peak inventory that historically has implied a liquidation phase to follow. The current inventory levels do not suggest a need for, or an inevitable, liquidation in cattle inventories at this time. Stable cow numbers and calf crop suggest that beef production will show little or no growth going into 2020. Current beef production levels and cattle prices are sustainable until something changes to provoke a new direction in cattle inventories.”

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