Source: Chris Scott, MEATINGPLACE, 8/2/19


African Swine Fever (ASF) is expected to reduce the world’s largest pig herd by half by the end of this year, according to a new report from Rabobank. 

The projection is significantly higher than estimates by officials in China and more than Rabobank’s earlier expectations. Chinese government agricultural officials have projected a decline in China’s pig herd of between 15% and 26%. Rabobank earlier this year projected a loss of 35% of the pig population in 2019.

The Dutch bank now also sees pork production in China for all of 2019 declining by 25% compared with figures from 2018, before the ASF outbreaks began nearly one year ago. Production in 2020 is expected to drop by another 10% to 15%, Rabobank analysts said.

The latest Rabobank report also projects that pork production in China could take more than five years to return to pre-ASF levels in part because of challenges to prevent the spread of ASF as well as a lack of capital that will limit restocking of the pig herd. China had an estimated 360 million pigs nationwide at the end of last year.

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