Source: POLITICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 8/7/19

Agricultural producers this year are facing a daunting mix of trade headwinds, weather woes, lower commodity prices, falling farm income and mounting debt. But, for now, a widespread drop in farmland values isn't among the financial risks they'll have to worry about, your host writes.

Farm real estate values climbed $60 per acre in 2019 to $3,160 on average, a 1.9 percent increase from last year, according to an Agriculture Department report published on Tuesday. Croplands are up 1.2 percent and pasture values increased 2.2 percent on average, keeping land values on a yearslong upward trend.

Ag economists have been watching for signs of weakness in farmland prices following a series of forecasts earlier this year that values could start lowering. But most states so far have seen slight bumps in average land values, and only six recorded a decrease from 2018.

In Iowa, real estate values were down 1.1 percent to $7,190 per acre, according to USDA's survey. California land values shot up 7 percent from last year — the sharpest increase of any continental state. The highest farmland values were concentrated in Northeastern states, led by Rhode Island at $15,600 per acre.

Data, meet sentiment: Ag producers in July also recorded much higher expectations for farmland values than in recent months, according to an index of farmer optimism from Purdue University and the CME Group. The percentage of producers who think values will rise over the next 12 months increased from 10 percent in June to 21 percent last month, the highest level since February 2018.