Source: Tom Johnston, MEATINGPLACE, 8/12/19


USDA raised its total meat production and total corn production forecasts for 2019/20 in its monthly World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports.

The boost to total meat production comes as increases in broiler and turkey production more than offset declines in beef and pork production.  The boost in the corn crop forecast comes as higher predicted yields are expected to compensate for lower planted acreage.    

Broiler production is raised on June production data and the expectation of a continued higher proportion of heavier weight birds in the slaughter mix. Forecast turkey production is also raised on recent production data and higher expected slaughter in the fourth quarter.

The decline in beef production reflects a slower pace of cattle slaughter in the third quarter and lighter expected carcass weights through 2019. The pork production forecast is reduced on a slower expected pace of slaughter during the third quarter.

For 2020, the red meat and poultry production forecast is raised on higher expected beef and poultry production forecasts. The beef production forecast is raised from the previous month on a higher expected pace of first-half marketings. However, the 2019 calf-crop estimated in the July 19th cattle report implies lower-than-previously expected marketings in the latter part of 2020.

Continued growth in average bird weights is expected to result in higher forecast broiler production in 2020. Turkey production is raised slightly. Forecast pork production is unchanged from the previous month.

For 2019, the beef import forecast is adjusted to reflect June trade data; the import forecast for 2020 is unchanged. Beef export forecasts are unchanged for both 2019 and 2020. The pork import forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are lowered on slowing import demand. The pork export forecast for 2019 is adjusted based on June trade data. No change is made to the 2020 pork export forecast. The 2019 broiler export forecast is reduced on recent trade data, but the 2020 forecast is unchanged. No changes are made to 2019 and 2020 turkey trade forecasts.

Fed cattle prices are raised a dollar to $116.50 per hundredweight (cwt) for 2019 on current price strength. The 2020 projection remains at $119 cwt. The 2019 hog price forecast is lowered 50 cents to $51 cwt on recent price pressure, but the 2020 price forecast is unchanged from last month at $59.

The broiler price forecast for 2019 and 2020 are lowered to 86.5 cents per pound and 92 cents per pound, respectively, on larger forecast supplies. The turkey price forecast for 2019 is raised to 88.5 cents a pound; no change is made to the 2020 turkey price forecast, still at 90 cents a pound.

Corn and soybeans
Meanwhile, USDA’s Crop Production Report, also released today, forecasted soybean and corn production down from 2018, but the agency raised its corn production forecast from last month’s forecast.  

Corn growers are expected to decrease their production 4 percent from last year, forecast at 13.9 billion bushels. Soybean production is down 19 percent from 2018, forecast at 3.68 billion bushels.

USDA raised, however, its corn production forecast by 26 million bushels over last months’ forecast, as a decline in harvested acres is virtually offset by an increase in yield. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 169.5 bushels per acre, is 3.5 bushels higher than last month’s projection, though still down 6.9 bushels per acre from last year. USDA forecasts record-high yields in Kentucky and Tennessee.

Acres planted to corn, at 90.0 million, are down 2 percent from the June estimate but up 2 percent from 2018. As of Aug. 4, just 57 percent of this year’s corn crop was reported in good or excellent condition, 14 percentage points below the same time last year.

Area for soybean harvest is forecast at 75.9 million acres with planted area for the nation estimated at 76.7 million acres, down 4 percent from the June estimate, and down 14 percent from last year. Soybean yields are expected to average 48.5 bushels per acre, down 3.1 bushels from last year. If realized, the forecasted yield will be a record high in Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee.

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