Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 8/21/19


Larger than anticipated June ending stocks of bone-in loins and boneless hams prompted an increase in USDA’s forecast for year-end pork stocks for both 2019 and 2020. 

June ending stocks for bone-in loins were almost 24 million pounds, more than double stocks of a year ago. Ending stocks of boneless hams, at 106 million pounds, were 13% higher than year-earlier levels. With increased pork production forecast for the remainder of the year, stocks of these categories are likely to remain large, according to USDA’s latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report. 

Year-end stocks levels were raised for 2019 from 565 million pounds to 600 million pounds. For 2020 fourth-quarter, ending stocks were increased from 575 million pounds to 650 million pounds.

Third-quarter commercial pork production is expected to be 6.8 billion pounds, more than 7% above production in the same period of 2018. Third-quarter prices of live equivalent 51%-52% lean hogs are forecast to average $53 per cwt, about 21% higher than the same period a year ago.

ASF in China
USDA also issued a summary of  the current and projected impacts of the now year-long outbreak of African Swine Fever in China. 

Pork sector data issued by the China Ministry of Agriculture show mounting destructive effects of African Swine Fever (ASF) on feeder pigs, live hogs and pork.

USDA estimates “many millions of hogs and pigs have died or been culled due to the disease.”

Chinese government trade data provided to the Global Trade Atlas indicate that China imported almost 819,000 metric tons of pork in the first half of 2019, a volume more than 26% higher than imports a year earlier. The EU supplied 62% of those imports, Canada accounted for about 16%, and the United States held an 8% share of the total.

“It is likely that U.S pork exports to China will continue to hold a residual share of the total Chinese import pie,” USDA analyst Mildred Haley predicted in the report. “But it is also highly likely that the Chinese import pie will get bigger over time: Currently, there is neither a cure nor a vaccine for ASF, and repopulating herds post-ASF is known to be difficult.”

As ASF continues to affect the Chinese swine herd -- increasing the volume of imports necessary to stabilize pork supplies in China from a shrinking set of acceptable exporting countries like Europe and Brazil -- another source for U.S. export growth is apt to be backfilling. Pork-importing countries foregone by major exporters vying for larger shares of a growing Chinese market could create significant export opportunities for U.S. pork exporters, Haley predicted.

U.S. pork exports in the third quarter of 2019 are expected to be almost 1.5 billion pounds, 19% above a year ago. Fourth-quarter exports are forecast at more than 1.9 billion pounds for a 2019 total of 6.5 billion pounds, almost 10% higher than exports in 2018.

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