Source: POLITICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 9/3/19

USDA on Friday projected that net farm income in 2019 would reach $88 billion, a nearly 5 percent increase over last year. But the turnaround doesn't prove that the farm economy is rebounding — it's bolstered by an expected 43 percent jump in direct government payments to farmers, including the Trump administration's trade relief program,writes Pro Ag's Catherine Boudreau.

— USDA expects to pay out $19.5 billion in direct subsidies to farmers in fiscal 2019 (not including crop insurance). That includes $10.7 billion in trade relief payments for both 2018 and 2019 production, as well as disaster aid and traditional farm bill programs.

— The median farm income is expected to be a loss of $1,644.Farm sector debt is projected to continue rising, along with debt-to-asset ratios, leaving producers at the highest risk of insolvency since 2009 — but still relatively close to historical averages over the last three decades.

— Farm exports to China are expected to slightly increase to $7.5 billion next year. That's due to rising pork sales as African swine fever decimates hog herds in Asia. Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans remains the "greatest unknown," USDA said in its first trade forecastfor fiscal 2020.

Checking in on trade aid: Delays in sending out trade relief checks to farmers have cost the government more than $1 million in interest, NBC reports. Farm Service Agency offices have been swamped with producers seeking payments. And because the 2019 package was designed differently than the first round in 2018, FSA workers have had to learn the new program on the fly.