Source: POLITICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 9/30/19

As the bruising trade war with Beijing continues taking big bites out of U.S. ag exports, the administration is looking all over the globe to find new markets for farmers and ranchers. Here's the problem: China's sheer size and continued growth in protein consumption — not to mention the many years that U.S. agriculture spent developing the market — make it nearly impossible to replace, your host writes this a.m.

The U.S.-Japan deal is one of Trump's biggest wins for the industry: It will help U.S. exporters keep pace with competitors like Canada and the EU, which signed their own deals with the country and are gaining ground in its lucrative ag market. But the new agreement largely just replaces what farmers lost when Trump exited the Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2017. And some of the groups hit hardest by the feud with China, like soybean growers, aren't likely to see major gains.

By the numbers: The deal will drop Japanese duties on $7.2 billion in U.S. products, but it's unclear how much exports will increase because of the lower tariffs. Purdue University projected earlier this year that rejoining the TPP would boost U.S. ag exports by $2.9 billion. Meanwhile, sales to China are down $7.7 billion so far in fiscal 2019.

"China has more potential than any single market for expanded pork exports," especially as African swine fever has decimated the country's pig herds and created "explosive demand for imported pork," said Nick Giordano, vice president for global government affairs at the National Pork Producers Council, in an interview last month. "How can you replace that? You can't."

Still, Giordano said the Trump administration is "not just blowing smoke" about opening up other markets around the world. "They're being extremely aggressive," he said.