Source: POLITICO' S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 10/17/19

There's still plenty of skepticism about whether China realistically can buy between $40 billion and $50 billion of U.S. farm products in a year, considering ag exports to the country peaked at roughly $25 billion under the Obama administration. But if Beijing aims to make good on that piece of the partial trade deal, here's how it might work, according to Trump administration officials:

China will keep making goodwill purchases between now and mid-November when Trump meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Chile. The plan is for China to scale up its purchases to record levels in 2020, reports Pro Trade's Adam Behsudi. And by 2021, Beijing will have removed non-tariff barriers tied to food safety and GMO approvals, opening China's floodgates to a surge of U.S. farm goods.

But, but, but: A person briefed on the trade talks said China is only expected to significantly ramp up ag purchases once Trump removes his threat to impose a new round of tariffs on Dec. 15. And Beijing would have leverage in negotiations if it reestablishes itself as a dominant buyer of U.S. ag product.

"They're going to be playing the farm card in 2020, even after starting and fulfilling their agriculture purchases," the person said. That could include shutting off purchases in response to U.S. actions on other fronts (e.g. support for pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong).

China has also indicated that any increase in imports will depend on market demand, as well as compliance with global trade rules and the removal of U.S. tariffs. Ken Morrison, a commodity markets expert who worked in China for years, suggested those preconditions could prove to be deal-breakers. "This sets up a replay of May when Trump accused China of reneging on the 'deal,'" Morrison told MA earlier this week.