SOURCE: JOHN DAVIS POLITICAL REPORT, 11/13/19 The impeachment proceedings beginning today in the US House must ultimately be seen in the court of public opinion as fair, unvengeful and bipartisan. Otherwise, Democrats will be facing a political backlash in 2020. A backlash that would likely include a second term for President Trump and perhaps two more conservatives on the United States Supreme Court.
On impeachment, US House Majority Whip James Clyburn, D-South Carolina, said on CNN’s State of the Union, “If the public ever feels that we are being political with this, we will have done a tremendous harm to the country, to the Constitution, and to the people that we are sworn to serve.” Clyburn knows that in the court of public opinion, how the public “feels” about the impeachment proceedings against President Trump is far more important than the facts of the case.
President Trump can be “indicted” in a formal proceeding like the impeachment hearings but exonerated in the court of public opinion. That’s what happened to President Bill Clinton in 1998.
On December 19, 1998, President Clinton was “indicted” when a GOP-led US House voted to impeach him on charges of perjury and obstruction of justice. The very next day, Gallup polling revealed that the president’s job approval had spiked to a record 73%, higher than President Ronald Reagan’s ever was. Clinton was not indicted in the court that mattered, the court of public opinion.
There is no better proof of the political primacy of the court of public opinion than the irony that it was Republicans who lost ground in the General Election of 1998 during the height of the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal. Republicans lost because voters “felt” that the GOP US House leaders were handling the impeachment inquiry in a vengeful and blatantly partisan political manner.
On November 3, 1998, Democrats gained seats in the US House, the first time since 1934 that the party in the White House picked up seats during a mid-term election year. GOP House Speaker Newt Gingrich lost his job. In North Carolina, Democrats took back the NC House from Republicans, and Republican US Sen. Lauch Faircloth was defeated by political upstart Democrat John Edwards.
US House Republicans learned the hard way in 1998 that you can’t win just by exploiting the misfortunes of a scandal-plagued president. That strategic misjudgment could easily be repeated this year if, as Rep. James Clyburn said, the “public ever feels” that the US House Democrats are “being political” with the Trump impeachment hearings.
Your character is more than your worst mistakes
If US House Democrats vote out articles of impeachment against President Trump, the most formidable challenge then becomes the fact that US Senate Democrats have only 47 of the 67 votes needed for conviction.
Where are Democrats going to find 20 Republicans to vote against President Trump when, per NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted October 27-30, a whopping 91% of Republicans approve of the job Trump is doing and 90% oppose removing him from office? It would be political suicide.
If you who do not understand why 91% of Republicans remain loyal to President Trump, consider the similarities between Trump and President Clinton.
During the impeachment hearings, President Clinton’s supporters knew that he cheated on his wife time and time again and lied about it time and time again; lied to her, the country, and the Congress. But they also knew that Clinton cared deeply about them. He stood up for people like them.
Your character is more than your worst mistakes. Caring is character too. It’s one of the great political lessons from the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal.
Like Clinton, President Trump enjoys the solid support of his base despite his character flaws. They know he cares about them deeply. He stands boldly for their causes. He’s making America great again!
There are many other similarities. Both Presidents Clinton and Trump have presided over historic periods of economic expansion. They both seem to love life on the edge. Taking risks.
Both are political geniuses. Self-absorbed and self-righteous. They share a solid reputation for having a loose grip on the truth. But despite all of their faults, their supporters believe deep down inside that they truly want to make the world a better place. That they care.
If American voters believe that Democrats are not judging President Trump with fairness but impeaching him with avengeance, they will lose in the court of public opinion. If they lose in the court of public opinion, they will not get bipartisan support for articles of impeachment, and certainly not get 20 Republican senators to vote “guilty.”
That’s why the US House Democrats are treading on thin ice with the impeachment hearings. If they fail to convict President Trump in the court of public opinion, they can say goodbye to the White House until 2024 and say hello to a 7-2 conservative US Supreme Court for many years to come.
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John N. Davis
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