Source: NC CLIMATE OFFICE, 11/21/19


We've already gotten our first taste of winter with last week's freezing temperatures, so with a whole season still to come, it's natural to wonder: is more of the same cold weather coming, or is a wintertime warm-up on the way? In this post, we will review the atmospheric features that may shape our weather this winter and some jet stream setups we might expect, then share this winter's outlook.

Pattern Overview
One of the best indicators of likely wintertime weather is usually the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. The cyclical change in Pacific sea surface temperatures happens slowly enough -- over the course of months or years -- that it offers some advanced predictability, and ENSO's atmospheric impacts include changes to the subtropical jet stream that can affect our weather in the Southeast US.

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