What's in Phase One for farmers?
Story Date: 1/17/2020

 

Source: POLITICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 1/16/20

The limited trade agreement includes more than 50 specific ag-related commitments, according to Gregg Doud, USTR's chief agricultural negotiator. Among the promises? A faster approval process for biotech crops and tariff exclusions for a range of U.S. commodities, reports Pro Trade's Doug Palmer.

— The pledged changes will remove obstacles for U.S. ag exports from beef, pork, poultry and seafood to avocados, blueberries, pet food and hay. China won't lift any of its retaliatory duties on American farm goods, which total $110 billion, but the new tariff exclusions will facilitate an uptick in agricultural purchases from U.S. producers.

— Beijing also promises to speed up the biotech approval timeline from 5-7 years to an average of 24 months. That's a big concession for the U.S. industry; China's slow and opaque approval process has long deterred farmers from planting genetically modified crops, including corn and soybean varieties, for fear of being excluded from the massive market.

The main entrée: Of course, Trump's biggest selling point for the deal is the commitment by China to start buying huge sums of U.S. products and services — an additional $200 billion over two years (compared with 2017 trade levels), including at least $32 billion more for farm goods.

Beijing will also "try" to purchase another $5 billion of agriculture both this year and next year, per U.S. trade officials, while exports of ag-related products like lumber would push the total toward $40 billion per year — the number that Trump and others have been touting for weeks. Doug has a full rundown of what's in the deal.

But, but, but: There's still a "giant hole" in the trade agreement, writes Pro Trade's Megan Cassella. It doesn't address the fundamental disputes at the heart of Trump's trade war, like China's massive subsidies for state-owned enterprises and other industrial policies, which the administration intends to address in "phase two."

There's no clear path forward on a second round of negotiations, and Trump has already started lowering expectations for further progress — especially with the presidential election looming in November. Meanwhile, tariffs remain in place on products worth hundreds of billions of dollars, which will continue to weigh on the economy.

























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