Source: POLITCO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 1/22/20

When the president signed the partial trade pact last week, it appeared to lock down one of his biggest wins for U.S. farmers and ranchers: the promise of $80 billion in ag exports to China over the next two years. But even now that the ink is dry, there's still plenty of doubt that Beijing will follow through on its end of the bargain.

Much of the skepticism comes down to China's repeated statements that higher imports from the U.S. must be based on market demands, comply with WTO limitations and not affect imports from other nations, our friends at the South China Morning Post write.
It's hard to square those conditions with an outright promise to buy a set level of farm goods, along with other products and services. Unless there's a surge in Chinese demand, which is unlikely, the uptick in purchases from U.S. producers would have to come at the expense of those in other countries.

That could pose problems especially for soybean growers, who will have to compete with cheaper beans from Brazil. One analyst said China has already purchased half its soybean demand for the year ahead, largely from the record Brazilian harvest that will come to market in February. And Chinese demand is expected to fall short of previous years due to the African swine fever outbreak, which has wiped out pig herds and lowered demand for soybeans used for animal feed.

If the agreement holds up, it could set records for ag exports and boost farm prices that have been depressed by years of trade tension and overproduction, says Virginia Tech associate professor Jason Grant, whose expertise is in ag and trade issues.

"However, to make this change a reality, China will have to purchase U.S. agricultural products earlier and more often in 2020 and 2021 than we are typically accustomed to seeing," Grant said.

Risk of re-escalation: Chad Brown, a trade specialist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said in a new report the commitments appear to be "even more unrealistic than first believed. ... Even worse, hostilities might renew, leading to a re-escalation of trade tensions currently on hold."