Source: POLITICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 3/23/20

Chinese importers made their largest purchase of U.S. wheat since Trump launched his trade war early in 2018, USDA reported on Friday. The sale, for delivery in the 2020-21 marketing year, could be worth up to $85 million based on current market prices, according to industry members, writes Pro Trade's Doug Palmer.

Good vibes: Industry groups said the volume of the purchase was "significant," but it's also a positive sign that Beijing is attempting to fulfill its commitments under the U.S.-China trade pact to import at least $40 billion in American farm goods in 2020 and 2021 each. Under the deal, China promised to work toward filling its annual tariff-rate quota for wheat imports, after the U.S. won a WTO case asserting that Beijing was ducking its obligations.

"If the changes are in fact implemented, and Chinese millers can respond to market signals, most of the [tariff-rate quota] should be used," said Vince Peterson, president of the U.S. Wheat Associates. "U.S. wheat farmers are in a good position to help fill the [tariff-rate quota] given current export prices, relatively low freight rates and the ready supply of the wheat classes China needs."

Forecast: USDA expects China to import 4 million metric tons of wheat from all suppliers during the 2019-20 marketing year, which ends May 31. That would be an increase from 3.15 million metric tons in 2018-19.