Source: POLITICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 3/26/20

Years of weakness in farming and manufacturing, and a weaker recovery since the Great Recession, have left rural counties in a fragile spot as the U.S. economy hurtles toward another downturn, Pro Ag's Liz Crampton and your host write this a.m.

The pandemic has already dented global trade and U.S. commodity prices, the latest economic headwind for farmers and ranchers after years of tariffs and weather challenges. "These type of black swan events, you can't anticipate it," said John Newton, chief economist for the American Farm Bureau Federation. "It's a shock to the global economy. We will rebound and recover — it's just a matter of how long's the drag on this."

Every hit to agriculture could ripple throughout the broader rural economy, said Mark Scanlan, senior vice president of agriculture and rural policy at the Independent Community Bankers of America. "It's not only the farmers — it's the Main Street businesses that they're doing business with, the people that are employed by the processing and distribution chain," he said.

Rural demographics could make it harder to confront the crisis and eventually bounce back. A USDA report published last November, comparing urban and rural areas from 2010 to 2018, found that the most isolated rural counties saw the steepest population loss and have the highest poverty rates. On average, rural residents are also older, with less access to health care — and potentially more vulnerable to the coronavirus itself, according to economists at the liberal Center for American Progress.

The pandemic is also shining a spotlight on the connectivity gap: The lack of reliable high-speed internet is a major obstacle to rural students or employees working from home as their schools and businesses close.