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Cotton to suffer 12% decline in global consumption due to COVID-19 pandemic
Story Date: 5/4/2020
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Source: INTERNATIONAL COTTON ADVISORY COMMITTEE, 5/1/20
Executive Summary
Highlights from the May 2020 Cotton This Month include:
• Current projections show a 11.8% decline in consumption for 2019/20, a 4% decrease in planted land in 2020/21 and a 4% decrease in production in 2020/21
• Government policies will be essential for recovery and will determine how fast the recovery will be
• The year-end price projection for 2019/20 has been revised down to 71.4 cents and the projected year-end average of the 2020/21 A Index is 56.9 cents
Cotton to Suffer 12% Decline in Global Consumption Due to Covid-19 Pandemic
We knew right away it would be bad, the only question was: How bad will it be? We’re beginning to find out now, based on the May 2020 edition of Cotton This Month. With the global economy paralysed and supply chains shattered, current projections show an 11.8% decline in cotton consumption, reducing global trade to 8.26 million tonnes in 2019/20.
While there is hope for a vaccine or cure, or that warmer weather in the Northern Hemisphere will minimise Covid’s impact, there can be no real economic recovery unless there is a health recovery first. Whether or not we sink into a worldwide depression — a long recession with unemployment reaching as high as 33% — will be determined by the effectiveness of government policies.
In 2020/21, global area is projected to decrease by 4% to 33 million hectares, with India remaining the world leader despite plantings dropping to 12 million hectares. Production will decline by a comparable amount to 25 million tonnes. The Secretariat’s current price projection for the year-end 2019/20 average of the A Index has been revised to 71.4 cents per pound this month. The price projection for the year-end 2020/21 average of the A Index is 56.9 cents per pound this month.
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