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Why betting odds give Trump the edge to win the presidential race and how Democrats can up the ante
Story Date: 5/20/2020
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Source: JOHN DAVIS POLITICAL REPORT, 5/19/20
Presidential Race is About the Future
Today’s Real Clear Politics average of all national presidential campaign polls shows Joe Biden, former Vice President now presumptive Democratic nominee, ahead of President Trump by 48% to 44%. However, the same site has average betting odds showing Trump ahead by 51% to 42%.
So, why are oddsmakers favoring President Trump over Joe Biden to win the presidential race? Because presidential races are about the future, and Biden has both feet firmly planted in the past. Because it’s too easy to tie Biden to the persistent corruption of the Washington, D.C. establishment.
Nominating a 78-year old moderate white guy with a “been-there-done-that” campaign message and growing signs of weakening mental acuity is not the way for Democrats to win the Oval Office.
The future of the Democratic Party is a brand new generation of progressive urban voters, along with suburban women with college degrees; a new generation of tech savvy young voters of all races and ethnicities impatiently waiting for their chance to lead. A new generation with new ideas.
New ideas like higher education that does not shackle them with debt for decades; a healthcare system that welcomes them when they are sick rather than one with deductibles and copays so high they can’t go to the doctor. Win-win solutions to global challenges, not win-lose nationalistic isolationism.
But, you say, can’t Democrats win by making the 2020 presidential race a referendum on the White House? Well, with Joe Biden as the nominee, the question becomes, which White House?
A Referendum on Which White House?
Unfortunately, if Biden is going to make his campaign about Trump White House failures, he has to be able to defend himself against allegations of abuse of power by the Obama-Biden White House. The Obama-Biden Justice Department. FISA Court abuse. False information; withholding exculpatory notes.
The 17 “inexplicable” inaccuracies and omissions by the FBI in the process of obtaining four separate FISA warrants that led to unlawful spying. “It’s hard to look at all 17 of these events and conclude it was complete incompetence,” said Inspector General Michael Horowitz.
Biden is going to have to defend the Russian collusion allegation propagated by the Obama-Biden DOJ and perpetuated ad nauseam by Rep. Adam Schiff, D-CA, Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, despite the fact that leading Obama Administration insiders, like former National Security Advisor Susan Rice and former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, told Schiff’s Committee under oath that they never saw any proof of Russian collusion.
Biden is going to have to defend the impeachment trial of President Trump that proceeded even though there was not one single bipartisan vote in the House for the articles of impeachment. “Unless you have bipartisan consensus,” cautioned Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-CA, in May 2019, “Many people would think it’s being done for political reasons.” Not one bipartisan vote.
Biden is going to have to defend potentially damning proof of dirty cops in the Obama-Biden Justice Department with the release of a senior FBI official’s handwritten notes regarding an upcoming interview at the Trump White House with then-National Security Adviser Michael Flynn. “What is our goal? Truth/Admission or to get him to lie, so we can prosecute him or get him fired?”
If Democrats try to make the 2020 presidential race a referendum on the Trump White House, President Trump will tear them apart. He’s meaner, better funded, and has the bully pulpit.
Democrats cannot win the presidency by making the campaign a referendum on the Trump White House when the Obama-Biden White House is being indicted and convicted in the court of public opinion for abuse of power. It plays right into what Trump won on, corruption in Washington.
The only hope for Democrats to deny President Trump a second term is to shift the focus of the campaign from the past to the future by replacing Joe Biden with a presidential ticket that is a mirror image of the next generation of Americans. A ticket with a women at the top.
That’s the future of the Democratic Party. A brand new generation of progressive urban voters, along with suburban women with college degrees; a new generation of tech savvy young voters of all races and ethnicities impatiently waiting for their chance to lead. A new generation with new ideas.
Today, the betting odds favor the reelection of President Trump. Those odds will flip if Democrats shift their focus from a referendum on the Trump White House to a ticket focused on the future of the United States as envisioned by the emerging generations of 21st Century Americans.
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Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
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