Source: POLITICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 6/1/20

The department on Friday reduced its estimate of U.S. farm exports in fiscal 2020 to $136.5 billion, down $3 billion from its February forecast, because of weaker Chinese demand and the “shock to world economies” caused by the coronavirus, our Pro Trade friends tell MA.

— Soybean exports are expected to total $16.5 billion for the fiscal year ending in September, which is $1.9 billion lower than USDA’s previous estimate, due partly to increased competition from Brazil. The department also expects lower corn, cotton and wheat exports.

— USDA cut its export forecast to China to $13 billion, down $1 billion from its February projection, due to lower expectations for U.S. soybeans and cotton sales. “China has been sourcing record volumes of soybeans from Brazil, helped by a weak Brazilian real,” USDA said.

Bottom line: The forecast is bad news for Trump’s hope of a Chinese shopping spree ahead of the November election. In the phase one trade deal signed in January, China committed to try to buy at least $36.5 billion of U.S. farm goods in 2020, which would be $12.5 billion more than the nearly $24 billion it purchased in 2017.