|
Political fortunes will shift as voter priorities change to the economy, government leadership...
Story Date: 8/6/2020
| |
Source: JOHN DAVIS POLITICAL REPORT, 8/5/20
During the next three months leading up to Election Day, November 3, 2020, the coronavirus will likely fade as the most important problem facing the nation, giving way to concerns about the economy, government leadership, and diversity. Shifting political priorities means a shift in political fortunes.
On the coronavirus: Intense public anxiety, worldwide, over COVID-19 has set off frenzied public funding to provide vaccine manufacturers with everything money can buy for their round-the-clock race to end the pandemic. The political pressure on politicians to solve the problem now, as in right now, is too great and the financial bonanza for pharmaceutical companies too enticing to wait a second longer.
Per The New York Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker, as of August 3, 2020, more than 165 vaccines are being developed by researchers around the world; 27 are in Phase II/III human trials. Multiple billion-dollar COVID-19 vaccine development deals have been inked under the Trump Administration’s Operation Warp Speed, funding research at companies like Fujifilm Diosynth in North Carolina’s Research Triangle Park, visited by President Trump Monday a week ago.
As to whether there is reason to be optimistic that a COVID-19 vaccine will be available sooner rather than later, the always-cautious Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told the US House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus on Friday that by “late fall and early winter, we will have in fact a vaccine that we can say will be safe and effective.”
Political implications: Gradually, week after week, positive news from labs around the globe touting progress on development of a COVID-19 vaccine will cause public fears about the coronavirus to give way to concerns about the economy. Voters will shift their attention from how to survive the virus to questions like, How do we recover economically? And, Who do we want in the White House, the Congress and in our state capitals to lead our economic recovery?
In addition to the issues of the Economy and Government Leadership, Diversity and especially Race Relations will also be on the short list of the most important problems on the minds of voters this fall.
Bottom line: Shifting political priorities means a shift in political fortunes.
Trump scores low on issues, high on counterpunching
President Trump’s poll numbers are lousy. Per today’s Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of all recent polls, far more people “disapprove” of the job he is doing overall as president (54%) than “approve” (43.7%). The only issue where Trump’s job approval is higher than his disapproval is on his handling of the economy, with an RCP average of 48.6% “approve,” 48% “disapprove”.
If the coronavirus is still the #1 most important issue on the minds of voters in November, President Trump will likely join former presidents Jimmy Carter, D-GA (1977-1981) and George H.W. Bush, R-TX (1989-1993), as the only presidents since Herbert Hoover (1929-1933) to win only one term.
However, if as I suspect concerns about the coronavirus give way to issues relating to economic recovery, government leadership, diversity and race relations, then President Trump has a fighting chance. Remember, Trump’s job approval score on his handling of the economy is a net positive.
So, there is good news and bad news for both parties in 2020.
The good news for Democrats is that the next generation of American voters are clearly more progressive and will certainly favor Democratic leadership over Republicans in Washington, DC in the near future. States with a solid GOP-friendly history like North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Texas and Arizona are at a Democratic-friendly tipping point due to the growth of urban and minority voters.
The good news for Republicans is that so many DC Democrats have fumbled efforts to punish Trump for defeating Hillary Clinton in 2016 or botched attempts to weaken him politically with sabotage tactics like the Russian collusion fiasco, that their ascension to presidential power in the nation’s capital very well could be delayed for four years.
Never give a ruthless counterpuncher like Trump an opening
Never give a ruthless counterpuncher like Trump an opening or he will knock you out.
If U.S. Attorney John Durham recommends a single criminal indictment later this month resulting from his year-long probe into the Obama Justice Department’s handling of the investigation into collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia, Trump will not only be vindicated, he will have a powerful counterpunch that can be thrown time and again, ad after ad, speech after speech, press conference after press conference, tweet after tweet … day after day until November 3, 2020.
Washington DC Democrats, through unrestrained personal vindictiveness (“We’re going to impeach the motherf***er,” Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-MI, told well-wishers the day she was sworn in), and congressional subterfuge (“I’m concerned that if we don’t impeach this president, he will get reelected,” Rep. Al Green, D-TX, told MSNBC), may have given President Trump too many opportunities for knockout counterpunches to start measuring the drapes in the Oval Office just yet.
That’s good news for Republicans. The bad news for Republicans is that this country is too diverse for an all-white male party to succeed in Washington, DC any longer. Diversify or you lose.
Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
|
|
|
|
