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Trump likely wins due to disunity amid crumbling DC Democratic infrastructure and disruptive...
Story Date: 9/8/2020
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Source: JOHN DAVIS POLITICAL REPORT, 9/7/20
Labor Day Forecast: Trump & GOP US Senate; Democratic US House
President Trump is likely to win a second term due to Democratic Party ideological disunity and a crumbling infrastructure of aging DC Democratic establishment leaders. Meanwhile, the Republican Party, who jettisoned their establishment baggage in 2016, is more united and enthusiastic over the prospects of another four years in the White House and a solidly conservative US Supreme Court.
Republican turnout in rural America, small towns and the outer suburbs will be solid, thanks to the radical left agenda along with the violent rioting which resulted in destruction of downtown businesses and anti-police anarchy not seen since 1968. That was the year Republican nominee Richard Nixon won the White House on the issue of law and order.
The enthusiastic Trump base voters, along with law-and-order independent voters, will be joined by new allies among Blacks and Hispanics thanks to issues relating to religious freedom and school choice, giving President Trump the advantage in swing states and his election to a second term.
Democrats will hold the US House in 2020 but will lose seats in once Republican-held districts in suburbs that elected Democrats for the first time in 2018. The net loss of seats in the US House will lead Speaker Nancy Pelosi to announce that she will not seek reelection as House leader, a welcomed relief for most members of the House Democratic Caucus who realize it’s time for the next generation to direct the party’s legislative and political agenda.
If the US Senate remains in the hands of a Republican majority, Sen. Chuck Schumer will likely step aside to allow for a new generation of Senate Democratic Caucus leaders to be elected.
Democrats Recover with US Senate in 2022 and White House in 2024
Two years from now, Democrats will likely win the US Senate majority and will likely win the White House in 2024. This forecast is based on the likelihood that President Trump and DC Republicans will push policy decisions too far right for the soon-to-be-the-majority younger generations of voters, who are decidedly progressive. It is after the elections of 2024 that you will see the dramatic shift in governmental priorities to revolutionary social justice, economic and environmental reforms.
However, the era of Democratic control of both the White House and the Congress beginning in 2025 will be checked by the US Supreme Court, which will have a 6-3 conservative bloc, maybe even a 7-2 conservative bloc, thanks to the reelection of Trump and a GOP US Senate majority in 2020.
Why Joe Biden will not likely inspire high turnout
Former Vice President Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee for president, is not the radical revolutionary leader young progressive Democrats so desperately hoped for in the 2020 race for the presidency. To win a revolution, young, progressive Democrats know they need a genuine ideological purist who, like them, would rather fight for what is right than win.
Biden is a dealmaker and bipartisan compromiser, not a revolutionary leader. Young Democratic voters will never be enthusiastic about Joe Biden. They did not turn out for Hillary Clinton in 2016 for the same reason and are not likely to turn out for the Biden-Harris ticket in 2020.
Joe Biden is a member of the DC Democratic party establishment that includes all the out-of-touch oldtimers like the Clintons, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Leader Chuck Schumer; an establishment that is standing in the way of a new generation of Democratic leaders with new ideas for the future.
DC Democrats are the crumbling infrastructure of a party divided between the aging, entitled establishment -- with all the power and money -- and the rising revolutionary wing of young Democrats waging a policy revolution on social justice, economic justice and climate change.
Well-intentioned young liberals will face a setback this year because of a voter backlash against the disruptive distractions of lawlessness in our nation’s largest cities and the disruptive attempt to cancel the culture of most Americans by tearing down statues and monuments.
President Trump is likely to win a second term in the Oval Office, the US Senate will likely stay in the hands of Republicans and the Democratic majority in the US House will weaken all due to disunity in the Democratic Party between the crumbling DC establishment and the disruptive radical left.
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Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
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