Source: POLITICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 11/9/20

The former veep defeated the president by reversing Trump’s 2016 gains in the traditionally blue Upper Midwest states, flipping Arizona and potentially winning Georgia, where votes are still being counted. Our Pro Ag team has the full rundown of the biggest food and farm issues to watch as Biden takes over in Washington, but let’s check out some of the highlights.

Big picture: For aggies, one of the central questions now is whether a Biden administration will hew close to the status quo or bring sweeping changes on issues like ag labor, climate-friendly farming or antitrust efforts. His choice of USDA chief will be an early indicator.

— Who’s in the mix? Biden’s main ag adviser, former Secretary Tom Vilsack, is said to be backing former North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp for the top job — a solidly moderate Democrat who could face less resistance from Senate Republicans during confirmation. Heitkamp sounds open to joining the Cabinet if asked, telling NBC’s affiliate in Bismarck that it’s “every citizen’s responsibility to work to bridge our differences and make America stronger” and that she “will do everything in [her] power” to assist the new president.

— Other potential contenders are Reps. Cheri Bustos (Ill.) and Marcia Fudge (Ohio), although Bustos narrowly survived her reelection race in a Trump-friendly rural district where Democrats might be wary to create an opening for Republicans. For her part, Fudge has been one of the toughest critics of Trump’s food and ag agenda, especially USDA’s crackdown on nutrition benefits. Fudge also has a growing coalition backing her, including progressive aggies and the Congressional Black Caucus.

There are plenty of ways Biden could unwind Trump’s farm agenda: After Trump’s EPA scrapped the Obama administration’s Waters of the U.S. rule, which was widely despised by farmers, Biden has said he would scrutinize Trump’s much narrower replacement regulation, incorporating feedback from farmers and ranchers.

He’s also talked about stepping up antitrust enforcement efforts, including in the farm industry. There’s bipartisan concern about agricultural consolidation, particularly in meat production, especially after the coronavirus sparked fears of a meat shortage when massive slaughterhouses shut down and producers were left without any buyers for their livestock.

SNAP reversal: Most notably, Biden is sure to reverse Trump’s pre-pandemic attempts to decrease participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, which accounts for the vast majority of USDA’s spending. He’s said he wants to expand household SNAP benefits by 15 percent during the economic downturn, something Democrats have unsuccessfully tried to include in economic rescue measures.

One Trump policy Biden might keep: With the pandemic dragging on, the new president might choose to keep steering huge sums of taxpayer dollars to farmers and ranchers to offset their financial losses as a result of supply chain disruptions. On the other hand, if Biden eases the tit-for-tat tariffs that Trump imposed, there will be less need to dole out more trade aid.

— If USDA keeps ad hoc payments flowing, Biden’s ag secretary is likely to rethink how to distribute the money across the industry, after Trump’s bailout programs were criticized for disproportionately helping Southern farms and big producers over others.

There’s a big “But” on all of these issues — and his name is Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell . The Senate is likely to remain in GOP control after Democratic candidates fell short in many states they thought they could flip. If Republicans can win two run-off Senate races in Georgia on Jan. 5, they’ll be in position to stifle any left-leaning policies or progressive Cabinet picks that Biden puts forth.