Pork prices inching back up as flu fears abate
Story Date: 5/11/2009

  Source:  Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE.COM, 5/8/09

While the pork industry is far from out of the woods on the H1N1 fallout, there are signs of recovery as hog and pork prices have lifted in recent days.

Lean hog futures prices for May delivery rose for the third straight day on Thursday, even as later-month contracts fell on profit taking after sharp rises the previous two days. The price increases follow a nearly 20 percent decline in prices last week when confusion and fears overtook facts related to H1N1.

On Wednesday, U.S. meat packers sold 9.552 million pounds of pork, the most sold in a single day since January 2002, according to Bloomberg and based on USDA data. The price of wholesale pork jumped 4.2 percent in two days at midweek.

The Obama administration, U.S. pork industry groups, the World Health Organization and government officials in Mexico and Canada have all been pounding away on the message that pork is safe. Even Food Network celebrity Paula Deen, who also is a spokeswoman for Smithfield, shared in a news release her message to anyone concerned about pork safety: "Honey, if you want that pork chop, eat it."

While some U.S. pork importers like Russia and China are still banning imports from at least some states, even Russia had lifted its ban on a few of those states by Thursday.

The U.S. pork industry is keeping a closer eye on Mexico, which is a much bigger pork importer, particularly of hams. Media reports have indicated that many Mexican consumers have stopped buying pork, with one report quoting the Mexican Swine Producers Confederation as saying pork product sales in Mexico fell 80 percent after the H1N1 outbreak began.

By midweek, however, hog futures traders saw the Mexican government lifting a five-day shutdown as a positive indication that things might be starting to return to normal. Ham prices have started to recover.

Analyst Steve Meyer and the Steiner Consulting Group wrote in the CME Daily Livestock Report this week that while some retailers emptied the pipeline following the influenza outbreak, those actions may have created pent-up pork demand that would support hog and pork prices going forward. Time will tell.

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