Total U.S. red meat and poultry production will be down this year as lower beef and poultry output more than offset higher pork production, USDA said in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

Citing the July 1 Cattle report, USDA said lower cow numbers, a smaller calf crop, fewer cattle on feed and fewer cattle outside feedlots compared to last year all imply smaller feedlot placements through the balance of 2009 and into 2010. Furthermore, the trend implies fewer feedlot marketings and lower slaughter. The result is a reduction in expected commercial beef production in 2009 to 25.87 billion pounds from 26.29 billion predicted last month. USDA sees beef production falling further in 2010 to 25.14 billion pounds

Fractionally higher commercial broiler production is offset by reduced turkey production, leading to an overall reduction in 2009 poultry production to 41.75 billion pounds from 41.78 billion pounds forecast last month.

Reductions in beef and poultry production offset pork production, which is now forecast at 22.82 billion pounds in 2009, up from 22.78 billion pounds forecast a month ago. USDA credits larger expected slaughter and heavier carcasses in the third quarter of 2009. It predicted 2010 pork production at 22.53 billion pounds.

Exports

Total export forecasts for 2009 largely are reduced due to lower expected beef shipments. Weak economic growth this year and tighter beef supplies will lower beef exports to 1.84 billion pounds in 2009 from 1.90 billion pounds forecast last month.

Broiler exports are raised slightly to 6.48 billion pounds from 6.43 billion pounds. Pork exports are unchanged.

Prices

Weak demand will lead to reduced average prices for cattle, hogs and broilers in 2009. Prices for choice steers are reduced to a range of $84 to $86 per hundredweight from $84 to $87 per hundredweight last month. Prices for barrows and gilts are reduced to a range of $40 to $41 per hundredweight from $42 to $43 per hundredweight. Prices for broilers are reduced to a range of 79 to 81 cents per pound from 80 to 83 cents per pound.

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