Source:  Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE.COM, 10/20/09

Corn harvest behind, but price surge may be temporary

U.S. corn harvest in the largest corn producing states as of Oct. 18 stood at 17 percent compared to 28 percent harvested by this time last year and 46 percent harvested by this time, on average, over the past five years, according to USDA's latest weekly crop progress report.

A week ago, corn harvest stood at 13 percent.

USDA reported 83 percent of the corn crop was mature by Oct. 18, compared to 92 percent mature by this time last year and 97 percent mature by this time, on average, over the past five years.

Corn prices

Cold, rainy weather in summer and fall has slowed crop maturity and has kept farmers out of the field at harvest time. Corn prices rose over the past month over concerns the late crop will lead to poorer yields, but those price rises might be short lived.

"What we have here is a very big difference between perception and reality," Rich Nelson, director of research for Allendale Inc., told Meatingplace.

Nelson said in similarly wet, late harvest years, corn yields were not adversely affected. He predicted corn price strength may fade as harvest progress is made in the coming weeks.

Nevertheless, the grain price run-up led KeyBanc yesterday to lower its forecasts for Sanderson Farms, based on higher feed costs. 

Soybeans

The U.S. soybean crop was 30 percent harvested by Oct. 18 in the top producing states, compared to 64 percent harvested by this time last year and 72 percent, on average, over the past five years.

In terms of soybean crop maturity, USDA reported 95 percent dropping leaves, the same as this time last year and compared to 97 percent, on average, over the past five years.