|
N.C. to emerge from recession in 2010
Story Date: 11/18/2009
| |
Source NCSU, College of Ag & Life Sciences, 11/17/09
North Carolina will climb slowly out of recession over the next two
years, with the state’s metropolitan areas leading the way.
That is the prediction of Dr Mike Walden, William Neal Reynolds
professor and North Carolina Cooperative Extension economist in the
College of Agriculture and Life Sciences at North Carolina State University.
Walden prepares an economic outlook for the state every six months. In
his North Carolina Economic Outlook: Winter 2009, he sees the end of
what some have called the “Great Recession,” the worst economic downturn
since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Walden sees the North Carolina unemployment rate peaking early in 2010
at between 11.3 and 11.5 percent. From that point, unemployment will
gradually improve. North Carolina’s unemployment rate stood at 5 percent
in December 2007, and Walden does not foresee a return to that number in
the near future. The economist sees the jobless rate falling to 9.8
percent by the end of 2010 and to 8.9 percent at the end of 2011.
Economic indicators such as manufacturing output, earnings per worker
and retail sales have trended upward in recent months, Walden points
out, while the housing market, which sparked the recession, appears to
have bottomed out.
Walden sees North Carolina’s economy growing over the next two years,
but slowly. Economic growth will be held back by consumer debt, he
predicts. Consumers entered the recession with what Walden calls
“historically high outstanding debt.” The economist doesn’t think
consumers will begin to spend until they’ve paid down some of that debt,
and consumer spending tends to drive the economy.
The result will be a slow recovery, although Walden writes, “economic
activity in the state is expected to be more robust than in the nation,
and this will be a distinct advantage for the state in recruiting and
attracting new businesses and enterprises.”
Economic improvement will be uneven across the state. “Job growth will
be strongest in the Charlotte, Triangle and Wilmington regions, and
several regions will continue to have unemployment rates above 10
percent at the end of 2011,” Walden writes.
Walden’s Economic Outlook is available on line.
|
|
|
|
