Source:  Tom Johnston, MEATINGPLACE.COM, 2/1/10

Cattle supplies in 2010 will likely decline another 1 percent to 1.5 percent in 2010, while a weak economy and high unemployment will continue to drag on beef demand, Cattle-Fax CEO Randy Blach told attendees Friday at the 2010 Cattle Industry Convention in San Antonio.

Still, Blach said 2010 generally "should be a better year for the beef industry" because beef exports are expected to rise and fed cattle slaughter totals are expected to decrease.

"Demand remains the biggest challenge for the beef industry in 2010," Blach said. "Though the supply situation is very bullish, demand must stabilize in order for prices to turn significantly higher."

Fed cattle slaughter and cow slaughter totals are forecast to be down 2 percent and nearly 9 percent, respectively. Average carcass weights are expected to increase slightly, and beef production is projected to be down 2.8 percent. Per capita net beef supplies are expected to be down 4 percent due to an expected increase in beef exports and smaller beef production.

U.S. beef exports, Blach said, should rise by about 8 percent over 2009, with increases in shipments to South Korea and, to a lesser extent, Japan and Vietnam.

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