Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE.COM, 3/29/10

USDA's quarterly Hogs and Pigs survey on Friday reported fewer U.S. hogs overall, fewer kept for breeding and fewer kept for marketing than analysts had predicted.

It also reported fewer hog farrowings and a smaller pig crop from December through February, as well as predicting fewer farrowings going forward through August.

As Paragon Economics President Steve Meyer put it, "A long stream of boring Hog and Pig reports came to a screeching halt with this report."

Analysts on a post-report call sponsored by the Pork Board agreed Friday's number could skyrocket hog futures prices on Monday and will very likely end sow culling.

"I think culling is likely to come to an end," said Len Steiner, principal at Steiner Consulting Group. "This report will give them some reasons to hang around."

The report showed all hogs on March 1 down 3 percent from a year ago compared to analysts surveyed by Reuters expecting a 1 percent decline.

It put hogs kept for breeding down 4 percent compared to an expected 2.6 percent decline and hogs kept for marketing down 3 percent compared to an expected less than 1 percent decline.

Prices

Compared to what Meyer estimates as a break-even price of $65 per hundredweight on a carcass weight basis, Erica Rosa, an economist with the Livestock Marketing Information Center, predicted hog prices will average $68 to $70 this year, which would be a 20 percent to 22 percent price increase from last year.

Other analysts posed similar price forecasts for the year, with some predicting prices as high as $79 this summer, before seasonally declining in the fall.

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