Source:  Tom Johnston, MEATINGPLACAE.COM, 4/23/10

Pork supplies in freezers as of March 31 fell by 5.5 million pounds, or 1.1 percent, from February, according to USDA's Cold Storage report that also showed further reductions in chicken and beef stocks.

The pork decline surprised analysts such as Steve Meyer and Len Steiner, who noted in their Daily Livestock Report that pork stocks normally grow until April or May before taking a seasonal dip due to lower output.

"A decline in March and then the short slaughter weeks of the past two weeks point to the potential that pork inventories could fall sharply by May 1," they wrote.

USDA said total red meat supplies in freezers fell 2 percent from February and 11 percent from last year. While frozen pork supplies were down slightly from March, they were down 14 percent from last year. Pork bellies rose 6 percent from last month but down 19 percent from last year. Beef supplies, meanwhile, fell 3.5 percent from February and 8.3 percent from last year.

Total frozen poultry supplies (including turkey and duck) were up 3 percent from the previous month but down 13 percent from a year ago. Chicken stocks, however, fell 1.3 percent from the previous month and 2.5 percent from last year, which, Meyer and Steiner noted, is their lowest levels since May 2007.

Breasts declined 8.2 percent from February and nearly 20 percent from last year. Leg quarters rose 12.4 percent from but fell nearly 5 percent from last month, which, JP Morgan analyst Ken Goldman noted, is counter-seasonal from February to March and helps explain why Russia's ban on imports of U.S. chicken hasn't affected leg-quarter prices.

"All else equal, the chicken data should be positive for chicken processors such as Tyson and Sanderson Farms," he wrote in a note to investors.

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