Source:  Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPALCE.COM, 5/12/10

USDA predicted total U.S. meat production for 2011 will be slightly higher than 2010 as increased pork and poultry production more than offset declines in beef.

In its World Supply and Demand Estimates report, USDA said beef production will continue to decline in 2011 on tighter cattle supplies. Declining cow inventories and calf crops over the past several years, coupled with expected lower imports of cattle during 2011, will result in a smaller pool of cattle available for slaughter.

Pork production, however, is expected to increase in 2011 as improved returns encourage increased sow farrowing and carcass weights are heavier.

Both broiler and turkey production for 2011 are forecast higher as producers respond to improved returns.

Less meat this year

USDA lowered its total meat production forecast for 2010 from last month, however, as lower red meat production more than offset higher broiler and turkey production.

Forecast beef production in 2010 was reduced as slightly higher cattle slaughter was offset by expected lighter cattle weights. The pork production forecast was reduced as supplies of hogs for slaughter are tighter than expected. Broiler production was raised as improved returns are expected to encourage increased hatchery activity. The turkey production forecast for the first half of the year was raised based on the most recent slaughter data.

Exports, imports

Despite an improved world economy, U.S. beef exports for 2011 are expected to be lower as U.S. production declines and more competitor beef becomes available. Pork and broiler exports are expected to benefit from an improved global economic climate and increased U.S. production. Beef imports are expected to be higher for 2011 as U.S. cow slaughter declines in response to lower cow inventories. Pork imports are forecast higher with relatively strong U.S. pork demand.

The 2010 red meat export forecast is little changed from last month with fractionally higher beef exports reflecting the pace of trade to date. Pork exports are unchanged. Beef imports are forecast lower as competitor supplies of beef are tight and global beef demand improves with the economic recovery. Broiler exports are forecast lower than last month on weaker shipments to several markets.

Prices

For 2011, average cattle prices are forecast to rise to a range of $95 to $102 per hundredweight for direct steer five-area prices including all grades. For 2010, the average price range was boosted to $94 to $98 from USDA's projection a month ago of $89 to $93.

USDA forecast lower hog prices (live equivalent 51 percent to 52 percent lean) in a range of $53 to $57 in 2011 due to increased production. For 2010, however, it raised its price forecast to a range of $55 to $57 from April's forecast of $50 to $53.

Broiler prices (wholesale 12-city average) were forecast at 80 cents to 87 cents per pound in 2011. For 2010, USDA raised its range slightly to 81 cents to 85 cents per pound from last month's range of 80 cents to 84 cents.

Cattle, hog and broiler price forecasts for 2010 were all raised on improved demand and tight supplies, USDA said.

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