Source:  NC Free Enterprise Foundation, 6/10/10
This Tuesday offered another opportunity for political pundits to analyze primary election results in an effort to glean clues about how this Fall's General Election will turn out.  There were primaries in a diverse array of states from around the country including South Carolina, Virginia, Maine, New Jersey, North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Nevada, Montana, and California, plus a U.S. Senate runoff in Arkansas. However, the most closely watched contests were the Republican primaries for Governor in South Carolina and California, the U.S. Senate races in California and Nevada, as well as the Democratic runoff for U.S. Senate in Arkansas. Overall, it is difficult to identify one clear message arising from Tuesday's results, however, a few interesting themes did emerge.
 
In the marquee matchups for U.S. Senate and Governor in California, two former corporate CEOs, Carly Fiorina (Hewlett Packard) and Meg Whitman (eBay), won their respective GOP primaries by wide margins. Their lack of political experience was viewed by many as an asset, and that may be a sign of a disenchanted electorate seeking candidates who are not "political insiders." More importantly, it may also be an indication that voters are looking to individuals with a business background and substantial real-world experience to get the economy back on track. With jobs and the economy consistently topping the list of priorities on the minds of voters, candidates with strong business credentials may well have an advantage this fall. Of course, the millions of dollars Fiorina and Whitman pumped into their campaigns (much from their own pockets) didn't hurt their efforts either.
 
In the U.S. Senate race in Nevada, former state Rep. Sharron Angle (R) won the right to face U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) in November. She bested two other serious candidates with significant help from the Tea Party movement. Angle is generally considered the weakest of the Republican candidates in a general election match up against Reid, due in part to the very conservative stances she has taken. Although her positions may have resonated deeply within the Tea Party and with others in the GOP base, Angle may have hamstrung her ability to cast a wider net leading up to the general election. Considering the growth of unaffiliated voters throughout the nation, candidates in hotly contested races have to remain attractive to independents in order to remain competitive in the general election.
 
In South Carolina, three-term state lawmaker Nikki Haley captured 49 percent of the vote in the Republican gubernatorial primary, just missing the threshold to avoid a June 22 runoff against U.S. Rep. Gresham Barrett (R) who garnered only 22 percent. Haley is also a favorite of the Tea Party and is running on a strong anti-establishment message. GOP Party leaders expect Haley to handily win the runoff and then face Democrat state Sen. Vincent Sheheen in the fall. Also in South Carolina, six-term Congressman Bob Inglis (R) faced multiple primary challengers and was lucky to force a runoff with another Tea Party favorite Trey Gowdy (R) in the state's 4th Congressional District. Many expect Gowdy, the winner of the primary by over 10 percentage points, to defeat the incumbent Inglis in the runoff.
 
Arkansas featured a Democratic primary runoff for U.S. Senate between incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. Most political analysts expected Sen. Lincoln to be swept out by the public's much-hyped anti-incumbent mood, as well as several million dollars being spent on Halter's behalf by national labor unions. Lincoln, however, beat expectations and edged out Halter with 52% of the vote. Her success in the runoff, after a disappointing showing in the first primary, is largely attributed to running a superior campaign which recognized and took into account  her position as the incumbent with establishment support.
 
While incumbency may be considered a liability this election cycle - remember the primary losses of Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT), Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA), U.S. Rep. Parker Griffith (R-AL) - Sen. Lincoln's victory demonstrates that running an effective campaign and utilizing establishment resources can go a long way toward overcoming a challenging political environment. One example was Sen. Lincoln's utilization of an increasingly popular campaign surrogate, former Democratic President and Arkansas native Bill Clinton. In the past few weeks, the three campaigns Bill Clinton has aided - Sen. Lincoln's U.S. Senate primary race, Libby Mitchell's (D) bid for the Democratic nomination for Governor of Maine, and Mark Critz's (D) special election contest in Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District - have all been successful. He is developing a reputation this election cycle as an effective closer for Democrats in tough races, and we can expect to see more of Pres. Clinton on the campaign trail leading up to November.
 
There is a tendency to read too much into primary election results, and we don't want to fall into that trap, especially in such a volatile election year with so many factors in play: the economy, voter disenchantment, health care and other policy debates on the national level, the Tea Party movement, wars overseas, the oil leak in the Gulf, etc., etc., etc. Nonetheless, candidates and their campaigns here in North Carolina would be wise to spend some time reviewing the results of these and other contests. Success in a primary, or the recognition of national political trends, doesn't assure victory in November, but it can help candidates refine their strategy, rework their message and improve their chances.

For more stories, go to www.ncfef.org.