Source:  NC FreeEnterprise Foundation, 7/1/10

In a statewide poll conducted in early June, Public Policy Polling asked the following question: "If there was an election for the state legislature today, would you vote Democratic or Republican?" The result:  Democrats were preferred by 43 percent of those polled, while Republicans trailed slightly at 42 percent. When asked about their perception of each party, voters responded with high negatives for both: 49 percent unfavorable for Democrats and 52 percent unfavorable for Republicans. Democrats led in the favorable category at 33 percent, while only 28 percent of respondents viewed Republicans in a favorable light.

With numbers so close and negatives so high, we can expect to see quite a few highly competitive contests this fall!
 
Over the past two months this and numerous other polls have been conducted to try and gain some early insight into North Carolina voter sentiment. It's easy for these results to get lost in the shuffle of busy days, especially while the legislature is in session, so we thought we would compile recent polling data and talk about several important hotly contested races. We have included information from as many recent polls as we can find in this review.


U.S. Senate:  Since the Democratic primary runoff election for U.S. Senate on June 22, two public polls have been released that have somewhat diverging views of where the race stands. The Democratic nominee, N.C. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, is shown trailing incumbent Senator Richard Burr (R) by one point in a Rasmussen Reports survey and by ten points in a Survey USA poll commissioned by WRAL-TV in Raleigh. The Rasmussen poll put the race at 44 percent for Burr and 43 percent for Marshall, while the Survey USA poll clocked it at 50 percent for Burr and 40 percent for Marshall. A respected web site that aggregates political polling data, Pollster.com, analyzed existing polls and has the race at 47.2 percent for Burr and 40 percent for Marshall. These candidates have proven their electability in statewide races, but both are plagued by low name recognition. In addition to a polling advantage somewhere in the single digits, Burr also possesses a massive campaign war chest that threatens to overwhelm Marshall, unless she can take full advantage of the recently announced support from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) and the campaign of runoff challenger Cal Cunningham.
 
U.S. House District 2:  By now just about everyone has heard about and seen the video of Congressman Bob Etheridge's (D-Harnett) altercation with two young men on a street in Washington, D.C. In the immediate wake of this nationally distributed and discussed event, the J.W.P. Civitas Institute conducted and released a poll showing Rep. Etheridge's opponent Renee Ellmers (R-Harnett) with a 39 percent to 38 percent advantage over Etheridge. While this event could prove to be a fleeting blip on the electoral radar, you have to believe we have neither heard nor seen the end of it. The Ellmers campaign reportedly received attention - and political contributions - from across the country in the aftermath of the video's release. Most national political pundits still rate this district as leaning or likely Democratic, but Etheridge's actions have infused a new wrinkle into this race, that could prove significant over the next four months. Future polling will indicate if Ellmers' surge was temporary or if she has been able to effectively use Etheridge's misstep against him.
 
U.S. House District 8:  Just before the June 22 runoff, Public Policy Polling tested first-term U.S. Rep. Larry Kissell (D-Montgomery) against Republican primary runoff winner Harold Johnson (R-Cabarrus). Kissell led in that poll 41 percent to 35 percent. At the time the poll was taken, Johnson had not yet secured the GOP's nomination, and was in the midst of a contentious runoff with controversial Republican Tim D'Annunzio. This is North Carolina's lone Swing seat at the congressional level and Republicans are hoping to take advantage of favorable political winds, if those winds do in fact blow in November. Johnson was definitely the candidate of choice of both the national and state Republican parties, but did the heat from the GOP runoff singe his chances of success in the General Election or will it work to his advantage? Kissell's uneasy relationship with the Democratic base could cause problems for him in November, but he was fortunate to avoid the addition of a third-party candidate in this race.
 
N.C. Senate District 8:  In the race to succeed the longest-serving member of the N.C. Senate, retiring Sen. R.C. Soles (D-Columbus), veterinarian Bill Rabon (R-Brunswick) leads former N.C. Rep. David Redwine (D-Brunswick) 50 percent to 35 percent, according to a Civitas flash poll. While Democrats have long represented this area - we rate the district as Leaning Democratic - voters here have become increasingly willing to back Republicans in recent elections. This poll seems to fall in line with this trend; however, a portion of Rabon's advantage may be due to increased name recognition following an active GOP primary. The lack of a Democratic primary in this district has not kept Redwine, a seasoned politician, from actively campaigning during recent months. Democrats maintain an edge in this district with 46.7 percent of the district's registered voters, compared to 30.7 percent for the GOP. The State Democratic Party and the N.C. Senate Democratic Caucus will strongly support Redwine, so expect the polling margins in this district to tighten significantly as we head into November.
 
N.C. Senate District 9:  This New Hanover County open seat will be one of the most closely watched races for the N.C. Senate. In a Civitas poll at the end of May, attorney Thom Goolsby (R-New Hanover) led former UNC Wilmington Chancellor Jim Leutze (D-New Hanover) 55 percent to 37 percent. When this poll was taken, Goolsby had just won a contentious primary with the GOP's 2008 nominee, Michael Lee. This district has a high number of unaffiliated voters, and even during the Democratic-friendly 2008 election cycle, retiring incumbent Sen. Julia Boseman (D-New Hanover) narrowly won a third term, carrying only 51.7 percent of the vote. The Civitas poll suggests that the Republican candidate starts with an edge in this swing seat, but as in the 8th Senate District, that margin is sure to close in coming months.
 
N.C. Senate District 10: In the third open N.C. Senate seat in Eastern North Carolina, District Attorney Dewey Hudson (D-Sampson) leads businessman and farmer Brent Jackson (R-Sampson) 44 percent to 36 percent, according to Civitas. This poll offers rare good news for Democrats, but agriculture interests are very important in this district, and Jackson's ties to that community are likely to help him in this Leaning Democratic seat. Any district where 56.8 percent of registered voters are Democrats is tough for a Republican to win, but Jackson spent over $100,000 on his primary race and reported more than $150,000 cash on hand in mid-April, demonstrating his ability to finance a competitive campaign.
 
N.C. Senate District 43:  The race to replace the highest-rated legislator in the NCFEF's 2009 Business Ratings, retiring Sen. David Hoyle (D-Gaston) features realtor and 2008 GOP nominee Kathy Harrington (R-Gaston) facing off against Gaston County School Board Chair Annette Carter (D-Gaston). In a Civitas poll conducted shortly after the May 4th primary, Harrington led Carter 56 percent to 28 percent. This district is rated as Strong Republican, and has been hostile territory for Democrats in recent years. With Sen. Hoyle retiring, this Senate district is the most likely to switch parties, a potential result this Civitas poll confirms.
 
N.C. Senate District 45:  Steve Goss (D-Watauga) narrowly won this seat in 2006 and successfully defended it in 2008. Based on a Civitas poll from mid-May and the district's demographics, Sen. Goss is in for another tough contest. The poll showed Sen. Goss leading GOP challenger Dan Soucek 43 percent to 41 percent. While Sen. Goss is used to small margins of victory, this Strong Republican seat will be a tough hold. Republicans make up 43.7% of the district's voters, one of the few legislative districts in the state where Republicans actually outnumber Democrats.
 
N.C. Senate District 47:  A Republican-aligned consulting firm (Carolina Strategy Group) conducted a poll testing Sen. Joe Sam Queen (D-Haywood) against GOP nominee Ralph Hise (R-Mitchell). They found Hise leading Sen. Queen 45 percent to 41 percent. Like his fellow Democratic incumbents in Western North Carolina, Queen is no stranger to tough, high-dollar elections. This district is geographically large, encompassing all or part of six mountain counties, which makes campaigning difficult and expensive. Sen. Queen hails from Haywood County, which holds over 30 percent of the district's voters, while Hise resides in Mitchell County, which contains only 10 percent of the electorate. It's not unusual to expect a tight race in this Leaning Republican district, and it looks like that is what we'll get this year.
 
N.C. Senate District 50:  Since narrowly defeating the Republican incumbent in 2004, Sen. John Snow (D-Cherokee) has easily held this Leaning Republican district. However, a Civitas poll from mid-May shows GOP nominee Jim Davis (R-Macon) and Sen. Snow virtually tied, with Davis earning 44 percent to Snow's 43 percent. This is another large multi-county district, taking in all or part of eight counties. Sen. Snow has been popular here, but this election cycle may test him like none have before.
 
NC House District 36:  Rep. Nelson Dollar (R-Wake) has been a perennial target for Democrats, and that looks to continue this election cycle, however, according to a Civitas poll from last week, he starts this year's contest with a big lead. His challenger, attorney and former N.C. Labor Commissioner candidate, Robin Anderson, trails Rep. Dollar, 52 percent to 30 percent. Unaffiliated voters make up over 30 percent of this Swing district's voters, making the outcome difficult to predict.
 
N.C. House District 103:  This open seat results from the retirement of Rep. Jim Gulley (R-Mecklenburg), a long-time conservative stalwart. Over the years, however, the demographics of this district have changed, making it increasingly competitive. A Civitas poll from last week seems to confirm this, showing Republican Bill Brawley (R-Mecklenburg) leading Ann Newman (D-Mecklenburg) 45 percent to 39 percent. This is one of three districts in the State House currently represented by a Republican that was also won by President Obama in 2008. It will be interesting to see if voter demographics have changed enough here to elect a Democrat to the N.C. House.
 
N.C. House District 116:  The 2010 election in this district is a repeat of the 2008 contest, where current Rep. Jane Whilden (D-Buncombe) narrowly bested businessman Tim Moffitt (R-Buncombe). A recent Civitas poll indicates that this year's race will be a similarly hard-fought campaign. Moffitt leads 45 percent to Whilden's 38 percent. The district is a classic Swing seat, with a high number of unaffiliated voters and near parity between the two major parties.

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