Source:  NC FreeEnterprise Foundation, 7/8/10
 
In today's About the Capital, we take a look at baseline numbers for Democrats and Republicans in the State Senate and examine how both party caucuses will work to build on these baselines in order to capture a majority in the 2010 General Election. Next week, we will look at the N.C. House.
 
Currently, Democrats control the Senate by a 30 to 20 margin. The chamber is the Democrats to lose. Based on national trends and voter sentiment, expectations are that 2010 will be a tough political year for incumbents and Democrats. It will be a challenge for the party in power to hold on to the seats they have, and regardless of the overall outcome of the fall election, the margin of control in the Senate is likely to narrow. This may result in some interesting dynamics in 2011 and possibly more voting opportunities for Democrat Lt. Governor Walter Dalton, who presides over the Senate and can only vote to break a tie.

 
Senate Democrats start with a baseline of 17 seats in Strong Democratic territory. All of these seats are essentially guaranteed to remain Democratic, despite the fact that GOP challengers are contesting all 50 Senate districts. In addition, Democrats hold seven seats in districts classified as Leaning Democratic. Although the party has successfully held these seats for years, at least three are competitive in 2010. Sen. Don Davis (D-Greene) won Senate District 5 in 2008 with only 52.9 percent of the vote, and retiring Sen. R.C. Soles (D-Columbus) carried only 48.7 percent of the vote in a three-way race in Senate District 8. The latter district and Senate District 10, currently held by retiring Sen. Charlie Albertson (D-Duplin), are both open seats in 2010 that have formidable candidates on both sides of the ticket.
 
Senate Democrats have successfully defended two Swing seats: Senate 9, currently held by retiring Sen. Julia Boseman (D-New Hanover), and Senate 24 represented by Sen. Tony Foriest (D-Alamance). They have also captured and/or held two Leaning Republican seats - Joe Sam Queen (D-Haywood) in Senate 47 and John Snow (D-Cherokee) in Senate 50 - and two seats in Strong Republican territory - David Hoyle (D-Gaston) in Senate 43 and Steve Goss (D-Watauga) in Senate 45.
 
If the political winds are blowing at the backs of Republicans this year, it is going to be increasingly difficult for Democrats to hold seats in GOP territory. David Hoyle's Gaston County open seat is the most likely to flip from Democrat to Republican, and Democratic nominee and Gaston County School Board Chair Annette Carter's withdrawal from this race last week makes that even more of a possibility. Democrat Steve Goss' seat in Strong GOP territory will be tough to hold. The other two Democrats who reside in GOP-leaning districts (Queen and Snow) will have their hands full, as well.
 
Senate Republicans start with a baseline of 13 seats that are Strong Republican (remember, two of the 15 Strong Republican classified seats are held by Democrats). In addition, two seats in Leaning Republican territory - Harris Blake (R-Moore) in Senate 22 and Phil Berger (R-Rockingham) in Senate 26 - are uncontested by Democrats, as is Senate District 46, a Swing seat held by Sen. Debbie Clary (R-Cleveland).

Sen. David Rouzer (R-Johnston) in Senate 12 had a close race in 2008, winning with only 51.9 percent of the vote, but this district, as well as District 2 represented by Sen. Jean Preston (R-Carteret), favors Republicans. Richard Stevens (R-Wake) in Swing District 17 always wages a well-funded campaign and handily defeated the Democratic challenger in 2008. Sen. Neal Hunt (R-Wake) won by a narrower margin in the last election, capturing only 52.8 percent of the vote, but this was in a three-way General Election in which he bested the second-place finisher by 10 percentage points.
 
All in all, it is not difficult to see how Senate Democrats have been able to maintain majority control of their chamber for so long. They have been able to consistently hold and defend all of the districts that are Strong and Leaning Democratic while capturing Swing seats and even some seats in GOP-friendly districts. If Republicans are to take advantage of any favorable political mood among the electorate, they must start by retaking these GOP-friendly seats and make significant inroads into swing districts and even leaning Democratic territory, particularly open seats.
 
As we've said before, the results of this year's election are especially important due to the role next year's legislature will play in re-drawing congressional and legislative districts. If Democrats maintain majorities in both chambers, they will have the power to draw districts most favorable to their party. If Republicans are successful in capturing at least one chamber, they will be able to impose greater influence over the district maps to their benefit. Both parties recognize the stakes in these elections, and, as a result, we can expect hard fought campaigns.

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