Source:  Lisa M. Keefe, MEATINGPLACE.COM, 9/27/10

USDA's quarterly Hogs and Pigs report showed U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs on Sept. 1 was 65 million head, down 3 percent from Sept. 1, 2009, but up 1 percent from June 1.

Breeding inventory, at 5.77 million head, was down 2 percent from last year and down slightly from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at 59.2 million head, was down 3 percent from last year but up 1 percent from last quarter.

The June-August pig crop, at 28.5 million head, was down 1 percent from 2009 and down 3 percent from 2008. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.91 million head, down 2 percent from 2009 and down 6 percent from 2008.

The average pigs saved per litter was a record high 9.81 for the June-August period, matching the record high for March-May 2010. Last year, the average pigs saved per litter was 9.7.

U.S. hog producers said they intend to have 2.88 million sows farrow during the September-November quarter, down 1 percent from actual farrowings during the same period in 2009 and down 5 percent from 2008. Intended farrowings for December-February 2011, at 2.89 million sows, are up slightly from 2010 but down 4 percent from 2009.

What it means

Overall, analysts had expected the overall herd to be down about 2.8 percent from 2009.
But rates of slaughter over the summer were lower than expected, analysts Len Steiner and Steve Mayer pointed out in the Daily Livestock Report on Friday. Some 336,000 head fewer than anticipated have been processed, they estimated. That may be due to last year’s poor corn crop, which has slowed growth rates, as well as the additional capacity made available by herd reductions and the desire to send the animals to market as heavy as possible, now that prices are higher.

Meanwhile, the total breeding herd (sows, gilts and boars) dropped another 1.8 percent — a narrower drop than in recent quarters, but still another 23-year low, noted Ken Goldman, equity analyst for JP Morgan, in a note to investors. With few gilts being retained for breeding, he expected supplies overall to remain tight and market prices to remain strong.

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