Source:  Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE.COM, 11/9/10
 

USDA raised its forecast of total U.S. meat production in both 2010 and 2011 in its monthly World Supply and Demand Estimates report.

For 2010, beef production was raised on higher steer and heifer slaughter and the pork production increase reflected exceptional gains in carcass weights.

Broiler hatchery data points toward continued gains in broiler production as the number of eggs set and chicks placed are large, the report noted.  The rate of decline in 2010 turkey production is slower than previously forecast.

For 2011, production forecasts for beef, pork, and broilers were also increased. The beef production increase largely reflected slaughter of the higher-than-expected number of cattle placed on feed during the third quarter of 2010.

Pork production was forecast higher in early 2011 as some of the weight gains seen in late 2010 carry into 2011. However, USDA noted, the increase in weights is expected to be moderated by higher costs of feed during 2011.

Broiler production was also forecast higher in early 2011 as the sector carries its current expansion into 2011 but higher expected feed costs are expected to slow the rate of increase later in the year, USDA noted.

Imports and exports
USDA lowered its beef import forecast is lowered for 2010 as the pace of imports to date is relatively slow. It left the forecast for 2011 unchanged. Beef exports in both 2010 and 2011 were raised on stronger growth to Asian markets.

USDA raised its forecast for pork imports for both 2010 and 2011 on strong shipments from several markets. The pork export forecast was lowered for 2010 based on the pace of exports but the forecast for 2011 is unchanged.

The poultry export forecast was reduced on weaker third-quarter data but the forecast for 2011 was unchanged from last month.

Prices
USDA raised cattle price forecasts for 2010 and 2011 to reflect continued strong demand for cattle. For 2010, it raised the average 5-area direct prices for all grades to $94.81 per hundredweight from $94.06 a month ago. For 2011, it raised cattle prices by $1 to a range of $96 to $103 per hundredweight.

Hog prices were forecast lower on larger forecast pork supplies. USDA put average prices for barrows and gilts in 2010 at $55.29 per hundredweight, down from $56.04 a month ago. For 2011 the price range was forecast at $54 to $58 per hundredweight compared to $54 to $59 a month ago.

The broiler price forecast was unchanged at 83.4 cents per pound in 2010 and a range of 83 cents to 89 cents per pound in 2011.

To download a copy of the report, click here. 

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