Source:  Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE.COM, 2/9/11

USDA raised its 2011 production forecasts for U.S. beef, broilers, and turkey, but lowered its pork output forecast in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

At the same time, the agency raised its price forecast for cattle and hogs, but lowered its broiler price forecast.

Beef
Cattle placements during December were large and will result in higher-than-previously forecast slaughter in mid-2011, according to USDA. In addition, cow slaughter in the first half is expected to reflect currently high cull-cow prices. Cattle weights are also forecast slightly higher in the first half.

The forecast for beef exports for 2011 was raised from last month primarily on larger expected exports to Asia. The forecast of beef imports was reduced as tight supplies in several exporting countries and a relatively weak U.S. dollar limit shipments.

The average cattle price (steers, all grades) for 2011 was raised to a range of $102-$109 per hundredweight from $99-$106 forecast a month ago, reflecting continued strong demand for relatively tight supplies of cattle.

Pork
Pork production was reduced slightly for the first quarter of 2011 as lower hog slaughter more than offsets continued high carcass weights.

The pork export forecast for 2011 was raised largely due to expected increased sales of pork to Korea as herds have been culled due to foot-and-mouth disease.

Average hog prices (live 51-52 percent lean) for 2011 were forecast higher on stronger demand with barrows and gilts now forecast at $58 to $61 per hundredweight, up from $54 to $58 forecast last month.

Poultry
The broiler production forecast was raised for the first quarter to reflect relatively heavy broiler weights.
The broiler export forecast was raised for 2010 but the 2011 forecast is unchanged from last month.
The broiler price forecast was lowered to 80 to 85 cents per pound from 81 to 86 cents per pound last month on larger supplies of broilers and competing meats.

USDA raised its turkey production forecast as hatchery data points to a slower pace of contraction.
The full report can be viewed here. 

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