Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 9/12/11

USDA raised its 2011 forecast of total red meat and poultry production to reflect higher beef production, lower pork production and nearly unchanged broiler production.  

Production
In its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, USDA forecast that continued large cow slaughter would boost beef production in 2011.

A slower pace of hog slaughter in the third quarter and slightly lower weights due to heat stress are expected to result in lower pork production this year compared to last month.

Broiler production in 2011 is about unchanged as an increased forecast of third-quarter production is offset by lower expected production in the fourth quarter. No change is made to turkey production.

For 2012, the beef production forecast is raised but pork and poultry production forecasts are reduced from last month.

Larger beef production is forecast for beef in 2012 as early year beef production reflects marketing of the large number of calves, which are being placed as a result of drought in the Southern Plains. However, production in subsequent 2012 quarters will reflect tighter supplies of cattle and lighter expected carcass weights due to the placement of lighter cattle and relatively high feed prices.

Pork forecasts for 2012 are reduced as tight feed supplies dampen hog weights.

Poultry production forecasts for 2012 are reduced as relatively high feed costs limit the sector’s expansion.

Import, exports
Beef import forecasts are lowered in 2011 and 2012, as U.S. cow slaughter remains relatively high. The beef export forecast for 2011 is little changed from last month as lower-than-expected second quarter exports are largely offset by higher forecast exports in the second half of the year.

The pork export forecast for 2011 is lowered, as second-quarter exports were smaller than expected.
The broiler export forecast for 2012 is also reduced on lower-than-expected shipments in the second quarter.

Prices
The cattle price for 2011 is about unchanged as a higher third-quarter price is offset by a lower fourth-quarter price. Cattle prices for 2012 are forecast slightly lower as larger marketings pressure cattle prices early in the year.

Hog prices are raised slightly from last month for 2011 but are unchanged for 2012.

Broiler prices are lowered for 2011, as supplies remain relatively large and demand relatively weak. Prices for 2012 are raised from last month on lower production.

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